Interesting turn decision Foxwoods 20-40
 

Background: Game is juicy as usual. SB is Doc jose, who plays poorly and will call down with marginal hands, Button is a thinking player on vacation who is a bit weak tight, but has solid values when she puts in multiple bets.

Preflop: Bad regular opens UTG+1, 2 cold callers and I call with 77 in the cutoff, weak tight lady calls on the button (she plays better than 90% of the players in the game and is definetly a thinking player), both blinds call. 7 of us take the flop.

Flop: 789 with two clubs
Preflop raiser bets, UTG+3 calls, I raise, lady on the button 3bets and I am 95% sure she has j10 from playing with her earlier in the week, small blind (Doc Jose for those who play in the game) calls 3 cold, preflop raiser calls two more cold and I cap for value and all call. 4 of us to the turn.

Turn is J of hearts. Board is now 789J with two clubs.
SB (Doc Jose) leads out, UTG+1 raises, I think for a while and FOLD knowing that the button is going to 3 bet and fearing some of my outs might be tainted.

What do you guys think of the turn fold?

Re: Interesting turn decision Foxwoods 20-40
 

fine w/ reads.

Re: Interesting turn decision Foxwoods 20-40
 

Correct decision.
You will have to pay 2 or 3-bets to catch 1 of 4 outs assuming you are up against a straight and two-pair. There are way better times in that game to get after it.

Re: Interesting turn decision Foxwoods 20-40
 

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What do you guys think of the turn fold?

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I don't like it. You could be against a straight and a flush draw. Or two straights. Or a straight and two-pair. Or a flush draw and two pair.

In all of these cases folding is awful.

Clench your teeth, and call down.

Re: Interesting turn decision Foxwoods 20-40
 

There are 3 others in the hand (SB bet, UTG+1 raised, and btn will also be calling or raising). We are up against any mix of straights, flush draws, and two pairs here. Between the 3 players in the hand I think we have tainted outs enough of the time to find a fold here.

Re: Interesting turn decision Foxwoods 20-40
 

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Correct decision.
You will have to pay 2 or 3-bets to catch 1 of 4 outs assuming you are up against a straight and two-pair. There are way better times in that game to get after it.

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????

i count 9 outs: the case 7 (1), any of the remaining 8,9's (6), and J's (2-one J is in another players hand per the reads)...

9 wins / 46 left, a little less than 20% pot equity,

and one needs four callers for each bet put in to break even on remaining bets...

tough laydown by the OP--given the pot size and the drawish nature of the board, i think i would have stayed in to see the turn card...very very big pot has been collected, and the others are probably on flush or straight draws or have made straights...UTG player might have 99's although it looks more like an overpair, so set over set is possible but not likely (i am willing to gamble on it here) and BB has straight per read by OP...

Re: Interesting turn decision Foxwoods 20-40
 

Assuming the turn will be capped and called 4 way, we would be putting in 4 big bets (BB) in a 28 BB pot. If all of our 10 outs are good its a good call (eg, the other three guys have a T). If there is a 2 pair and a straight against us we only have 4 outs and the call is a bad one. If one guy has JJ, 99, or 88 then we have 1 out making for a really bad call.

I would estimate we have an average of 5 outs in this situation and I would usually fold. Then when an 8 comes on the river and two guys show a T and the other guy mucks I try to act like I am OK for the next 9 hours.

I am trying to get myself to call (or raise to disguise my hand) in these situations because on close calls in big pots I want to err on the side of a big win.

Re: Interesting turn decision Foxwoods 20-40
 

Is UTG+3 out of this hand? I assume so, but it's not clear from OP's post.

Anyways, SB must have a T, he called 3 cold on the flop and is leading out on the turn in a capped flop hand.

Is preflop raiser retarded enough to raise here on the turn without a T? If you think there's a high probability he has JJ or some other set, I could understand a fold, but he has to be fairly retarded to do.

You already put cutoff on JT.

So unless all of these people are retarded and betting/raising on a J-9-8-7 board without a T, you should have lots of clean outs. Your implied odds is also great, since they will all pay you off.

Re: Interesting turn decision Foxwoods 20-40
 

So unless all of these people are retarded and betting/raising on a J-9-8-7 board without a T, you should have lots of clean outs.

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I think we may be forgetting that this is Foxwoods 20-40.

Never the less, The Captain brings up a solid point. As I am now re-thinking it, the % of times we are up against someone with two pair (hence giving us 4 clean outs Razor) goes down significantly unless Doc is betting out J9,J8 which is entirely possible for those who know. With this new thinking and decent implied odds, I may be leaning back towards the calling side.
It's close... what showed down?

Re: Interesting turn decision Foxwoods 20-40
 

Does anyone want to raise this preflop?