50nl: Bluff this river?
 

Villain is 55/13/1.67 over 50 hands. Basically a station on the flop but he has donked into me on the turn a couple times and has been frequently donking the river as well.

My question isn't really about this hand but about hands such as this against similar opponents. His range seems polarized as either a weak one pair hand or a whiffed draw. How standard is a river bluff? Should I be trying it more often?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $30
Hero: $51.10
Button: $57.40
SB: $57.30
BB: $19.25

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG (poster) checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.25</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($5.25, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $2.5</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($10.25, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($10.25, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Results:
Final pot: $10.25

Re: 50nl: Bluff this river?
 

If you want to bluff river, you need to bet turn.


IMO.

Re: 50nl: Bluff this river?
 

Not against this guy...much better against thinkin players and huge nits. This guy is probably neither

Re: 50nl: Bluff this river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you want to bluff river, you need to bet turn.


IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think so. I would check the turn with most jacks. Villain seems clueless though, so probably doesnt really matter what he does previously in the hand.

Re: 50nl: Bluff this river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you want to bluff river, you need to bet turn.


IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think so. I would check the turn with most jacks. Villain seems clueless though, so probably doesnt really matter what he does previously in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]


I would ck turn also, just answering question.

Re: 50nl: Bluff this river?
 

[ QUOTE ]

I dont think so. I would check the turn with most jacks. Villain seems clueless though, so probably doesnt really matter what he does previously in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty much my thinking here. I think he bets into me with most Jacks which makes me think his range is mostly draws, PPs, and the occasional J2s type stuff. I'm thinking he folds all his missed draws to a bet save for Txcc which picked up a pair.

I lose the pot 95% of the time by checking and estimate he folds the river 30-40% of the time. Betting is definitely profitable if these assumptions are true. I guess my question boils down to, how often do you think he actually folds?

Re: 50nl: Bluff this river?
 

Is that your flop bet size with KK?

Re: 50nl: Bluff this river?
 

Nah, flop bet was due to the crappy slider at FTP. A misclick of sorts

Re: 50nl: Bluff this river?
 

You can't rep anything here. Are you betting a Ten on the river? Would not be surprised if you got looked up by Ace high.

Re: 50nl: Bluff this river?
 

Against him I'd bet a T on the river.

Whether or not I am repping anything doesn't matter against opponents who can't read hands.