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-   -   Check my pot odds math (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=455399)

Khaos4k 07-19-2007 05:53 PM

Check my pot odds math
 
Playing against a shortstack, want to make sure my math is correct for this call.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($15)
MP ($14.75)
CO ($11.70)
Button ($25.85)
SB ($11.90)
Hero ($33.20)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $1.25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $11.9</font>, Hero ?

So, $15.65 in the pot, it costs me $8.40 to call. Since villain is a shorty we are getting better odds than with a full stack.

It also means that his range is a little bit bigger. If I put him on TT+ even JJ+ we are looking at a 60:40 equity situation.

40% of the time I win $15.65. $15.65*0.4 = $6.26
60% I lose $8.40. $8.40*0.6 = -$5.04

Therefore, I am getting $6.26 - $5.04 = $1.22 sklansky bucks

Look good?

Harv72b 07-19-2007 06:02 PM

Re: Check my pot odds math
 
It's also 6-handed &amp; has come down to a blind vs. blind hand. On the basis of that alone I make the instacall, confident that I'm 50/50 the vast majority of the time and ahead a good portion of the rest.

Really, the only time this is a bad call preflop is when he's got AA or KK (and even against KK it's fairly close). Based on the circumstances you can never possibly narrow his hand down that far without a pretty firm read on the player.


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