Good read: Bad luck or bad play?
 

I would like to discuss a hand that came up in one of my home games very recently. It was an 8 person SnG, we each started with $22.50 in chips. It was a slow tournament, blinds were starting to get high relative to the chip stacks, there were still 6 people in, blinds were up to $1/2, and I had about $35.

Preflop:
I raise to $6 in UTG or UTG+1 (forget which) with AQ offsuit. I get 1 call from a pretty solid player in the blinds, who was the chip leader with around $50 or so.

Flop:
The flop comes J,4,4 rainbow. He leads out on the flop for $8. My first instinct was that it was just a continuation bluff, and I decided to just call to see if one of my overcards hit or if he gives up on his bluff take it from him on the turn.

Turn:
An ace hits, and he puts out another $8, and I was feeling pretty good that my aces was the best hand at this point. I strongly considered raising all in, but I just called because I was just so sure he'd lead out again on the river and it would be easy money, where as if I go all in here on the turn, he could fold.

River:
The ominous King comes on the river giving me a little uneasy feeling... He leads out for 14, basically the rest of my money and I call. He flips over QT for the straight. He's not a donkey or anything, he knew what happened, and he was like "im sorry, that was pretty bad"

The question remains though. Should I have gone all in on the turn? or maybe even raised the turn? I suppose I could have also folded the flop but my read was dead on and everything was going as planned. What's the play here? It was sort of a bluff-call draw type thing and I hit my pair and was trying to maximize my profit, but at the same time sacrificied hand protection.

Re: Good read: Bad luck or bad play?
 

There are quite a few cards that you dont want to see on the river: a king, a queen, a ten or a jack. I'd push the turn.

If he had AK he would be likely to 3bet so his pf range here is often two broadway cards / 55-1010