12T: SNGwiz says fold AK on the bubble
 

Is this wrong? SNGwiz says to only play AA here, which seems unreasonable.

Full Tilt Poker Game #2868412693: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (21883164), Table 1 - 250/500 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:37:41 ET - 2007/07/06
Seat 2: soma71 (3,753)
Seat 3: Mentos190 (4,540)
Seat 6: Landonfan (2,045)
Seat 8: squallBR (3,162)
Landonfan posts the small blind of 250
squallBR posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Landonfan [Kh As]
soma71 raises to 1,750
Mentos190 folds
Landonfan raises to 2,045, and is all in

Re: 12T: SNGwiz says fold AK on the bubble
 

What range did you give your opponent?

SNGwiz doesn't "tell" you anything without an opponents pushing range being specified - so this OP is meaningless without telling us what pushing range you had him on. If you gave it good information about your opponent, it will recommend the most profitable course of action.

I don't know what range he would have to be on to make this call +EV. Maybe you should play around and work that out, and then think about whether he was pushing tighter or looser than that range?

Re: 12T: SNGwiz says fold AK on the bubble
 

Yeah I'm surprised too, but if he's raising/shoving really tight (5-6%) then it comes up a fold.

This is an interesting spot for the cutoff. Using SNGPT and setting all the villians at the tightest calling range (TT+,AQs+,AKo), he should shove ATC. Setting them all to range 4 (22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs), and he should only shove 99+,AQo+,AJs+ (5.4%). I understand villian didn't actually shove, but for OP's purposes he might as well have.

So, if you think he's only shoving the tight range, 99+, etc.. then yep, looks like a fold. But even at a raising range of 10%, or 66+,ATo+,A8s+,KJs+, SNGPT gives this a clear call.

I'd play around with the open ranges on SNGWiz, and unless I had a strong read I wouldn't put villian on anything tighter than 10% to open, giving you a call.

Re: 12T: SNGwiz says fold AK on the bubble
 

I don't know how SNGwiz works, but i ran this through SNGPT and AKo is a call against an UTG-range of 66+,AJo+,A9s+,KQs .... which should be WAY tighter than any normal person is pushing here. You would have to be against a range of QQ+ to consider folding KK.

You have to be doing something wrong to get that kind of result.

Re: 12T: SNGwiz says fold AK on the bubble
 

How long can you wait for AA?

Re: 12T: SNGwiz says fold AK on the bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
How long can you wait for AA?

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Geez all that typing I did when I could have just typed 7 words [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. nh, sir

Re: 12T: SNGwiz says fold AK on the bubble
 

SNGwiz initially had him raising top 18% (33+,A5+,A2s+,KQ,KTs+), and still said push nothing but AA, which surprised me enough to post about it. I set his range at ATC and I'm still getting an easy fold.

FWIW, I had him raising way tighter than that (77+,AJ+,ATs+), and still assumed a push was +EV, especially with me being the short stack.

Re: 12T: SNGwiz says fold AK on the bubble
 

Folding would be terrible vs anyone. No one is raising tight enough to make this a fold. Your ranges are way off, OP. We're the shorty with less than 4x.

Re: 12T: SNGwiz says fold AK on the bubble
 

im pretty sure I would always call this with 5 BBs or less.

Re: 12T: SNGwiz says fold AK on the bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
SNGwiz initially had him raising top 18% (33+,A5+,A2s+,KQ,KTs+), and still said push nothing but AA, which surprised me enough to post about it. I set his range at ATC and I'm still getting an easy fold.

FWIW, I had him raising way tighter than that (77+,AJ+,ATs+), and still assumed a push was +EV, especially with me being the short stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Something is not right then...