Live 4/8 Neighbor Lays Down Set on Flop
 

Loose aggressive table. I didn't play this hand, so I don't remember the exact details, but it was a multiway pot. I'm in the BB. SB is a drunk who normally plays no limit and who has been spewing money.

Preflop: A limper or two. Grizzled, aggressive and somewhat tricky old guy in MP raises. Two cold callers. SB reraises. I'm not sure what the limpers do. Old guy caps. Some callers. SB grumbles and says he is sure the old guy has aces. He pisses of the table for taking so long as he moans about how he knows his opponent has aces before he calls. He also mutters about how he has kings, but I am not sure if the entire table heard him. Pot is capped at least four-way.

Flop: AKQ rainbow.
SB bets. Old guy raises. Another guy reraises. (This guy has done nothing in particular to mark himself as an idiot, unlike other people at the table). SB pisses off the table more with his no limit Hollywood big fold act and shows me his pocket kings before mucking.

He obviously put his opponents on AA and JT (as did I).

1) Would you make the same read?
2) If you did make that read, it seems like an obvious fold, given that you believe yourself to be drawing to one out. Would you have the courage to fold, based on that read? If not on the flop, then at what point?

Re: Live 4/8 Neighbor Lays Down Set on Flop
 

Option A: Call down 4 bets each street...-$80

Option B: Fold flop, +$80 saved equity = +$160 swing...good fold, esp. if he announced his hand!

Re: Live 4/8 Neighbor Lays Down Set on Flop
 

lolz

Re: Live 4/8 Neighbor Lays Down Set on Flop
 

I actually had one guy at the table say that he wouldn't fold because he had a runner-runner shot at a bad beat jackpot (his share would have been close to 30K if it came ace, king on the turn and river).

But, seriously, what would you do if you had not announced your hand.

Re: Live 4/8 Neighbor Lays Down Set on Flop
 

1) Obviously I havn't played with villian but I put preflop cappers on QQ+ and AK.

2) Villian is going to have to show me AA before I fold.

Re: Live 4/8 Neighbor Lays Down Set on Flop
 

I fold this one probably hardly ever

Re: Live 4/8 Neighbor Lays Down Set on Flop
 

Yeah, I don't fold here until I know for sure I'm in serious trouble. The chance that someone is holding AKs, AQs, AJs, QJs, etc. is too high. Capping preflop with AKs and AQs is pretty standard, and both those hands would push pretty hard in this situation. I'd call down and wait for the turn to reevaluate, at least one of the other players is likely to slow down here so you may be able to show down much cheaper than expected.

Re: Live 4/8 Neighbor Lays Down Set on Flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Capping preflop with AKs and AQs is pretty standard, and both those hands would push pretty hard in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Capping preflop is standard for you. I would guess that at least 90% of the players I see won't cap (or even 3bet preflop) with those hands, but I generally play in Midwestern Indian or riverboat casinos, so you may run into more aggressive players preflop.

If I said that I have seen the aggressive/tricky old guy occasionally limp with QQ/JJ on the button then 3bet preflop when one of the blinds raised, would that change anyone opinion?

Action went bet/raise on the turn and check/call on the river. Villains showed down AA and JT.

Re: Live 4/8 Neighbor Lays Down Set on Flop
 

Does change it a quite a bit. The main consideration here seems to be the preflop betting range. This is a great laydown if the range is very small and has a lot of hands that beat you, it's terribly weak if the range is larger and includes a number of hands you bet with the set. California card rooms see a lot of players who will cap even if they weren't one of the original raisers, figuring it'll be raised again anyway and they might as well just get it over with.

Re: Live 4/8 Neighbor Lays Down Set on Flop
 

I wouldn't fold considering the fact that if another K came that would be badbeat jackpot at least in my home casino, im willing to try to a hit a one outer w/ two cards to go for over 20k in a 4/8 game.