Nut flush draw facing big bet on flop from the chipleader
 

$25 mtt on pokerstars, bubble just burst.

Villain is very laggy/loose, and has plenty of chips for it. I figure his bet on the flop is probably a ten with any random kicker, and I don't think he's folding. He could have a lower flush draw or some sort of straight draw, but I don't think he'd bet as much (although a hand like QhJh is certainly in his range). Anyways, do we commit ourselves here with 12 perceived outs and little fold equity?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1600 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG (t37275)
UTG+1 (t21810)
MP1 (t49392)
MP2 (t17467)
MP3 (t27558)
CO (t32693)
Button (t59638)
SB (t88456)
Hero (t20030)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls t1600, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t1600, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t6200) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t6400</font>, Hero

Re: Nut flush draw facing big bet on flop from the chipleader
 

very standard shove.

He is not folding a ten but he will:

a) call with a flush draw
b) fold his rag rag giving us a decent pot
c) sometimes fold his 45s or other random junk he is completing with in the SB.
d) call with 56
e) ... whatever, feel free to add to this list.

You also should have at least considered shoving preflop. And by considered shoving I mean this is a very automatic and easy shove with a chance to increase our stack by 25%+ in a pot that no one has shown much interest in.

Re: Nut flush draw facing big bet on flop from the chipleader
 

You make a good point about shoving PF. By the way, in the OP I meant it to say QdJd type hands are in his range, not hearts. I can't seem to edit the post...

I figured it's a pretty easy shove, and I don't want to give up the equity I have in the hand, but I think I'm getting called at least 80% of the time based on his bet size.


edit: Also IMO he is very likely to check-raise if he has a draw.