u.s. open golf thread
 

the u.s. open starts this thursday in oakmont, pennsylvania. the last time the championship was played at oakmont was 1994, when ernie els survived in a three-way playoff against colin montgomerie and loren roberts, in one of the more memorable tournaments of the 1990s.

the course is shaping up to be one of the toughest tests in golf history. betting wise, this tends to separate the pretenders from the real contenders more starkly. tough grinders like retief goosen and jim furyk tend to be popular plays.

what looks good to you this year?

Re: u.s. open golf thread
 

els shot 279 to win in 1994, when it was par 71. the course has been lengthened (only) 300 yards since then, and converted into a par 70. the greens are measuring 14-15 on the stimpmeter and the forecast calls for clear skies and wind all week, making the course even firmer.

ian poulter has said he would take a 5 over par 285 right now. vijay singh speculated 10 over par might win, while tiger and geoff ogilvy both said it was the toughest u.s. open course they've ever played.

as such, i think the bet at bodog for the winning score after 72 holes to be over par (over 280) at -400, is a strong play. i think 80% of the time this tournament ends in the black, even though it has only happened once in the last several years in the u.s. open. that was last year, when ogilvy won with a 5 over par score.

pinnacle has the lowest round of the tournament at 67.5 -105. so they are saying it is only 50% chance that anyone all week shoots a -3 for 18. if you extrapolate that to 72 holes, the odds that anyone stays at even seems very unlikely. pinny also hangs over 284.5 -128 for winning score.

Re: u.s. open golf thread
 

i like some of the prop bets here. like sergio or zach johnson missing the cut.

not sure about the winner's score. seems like it should be over par, but -400?

Re: u.s. open golf thread
 

bodog also has the prop "will there be a hole in one" on the NO at -170, which is scalpable at pinny who is hanging -201 on NO.

Re: u.s. open golf thread
 

Mickelson has been hurt and is playing 9 practice holes all week. Yet he's still second most likely to win at 11 to 1? I'm tempted to lay the odds against it.

Tyler

Re: u.s. open golf thread
 

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not sure about the winner's score. seems like it should be over par, but -400?

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the more i think about this pick the more i hate it. i would bail on it if it were possible. the usga is not going to let it get too out of hand... if there is no rain, then they will water the greens more.

i am sweating this outcome way too much for -400

and the number i used for comparison, pinny's best round all week under 67.5 has jumped to -142... go figure.

Re: u.s. open golf thread
 

I hit the max at pinny twice for Under 67.5 Single rounds score at -120 and -123

I like it.

Any thoughts?

Re: u.s. open golf thread
 

Clock at 120 and 123 I like it, 142 might be a bit high. I think you'll have to sweat this until Sunday, but I think someone will post an early 67 on Sunday after they water the greens Saturday night and before the greens dry out.

Re: u.s. open golf thread
 

tiger +300 on wsex live betting looks good

Re: u.s. open golf thread
 

Some of my first round match-ups:

G. Ogilvy +214 vs. Tiger Woods
A. Scott -124 vs. Phil Mick
J. Furyk -124 vs. Phil Mick