PS $100k AA river decision
 

I had been pretty laggy with my big stack. I think this is a pretty tough spot on the river because he isnt bluffing or valuebetting many hands but im getting 2.5-1 with a pretty underrepped hand.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO (t7489)
Button (t5840)
SB (t17830)
BB (t17805)
UTG (t3490)
Hero (t20240)
MP1 (t3175)
MP2 (t7535)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1200</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls t800.

Flop: (t2140) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t2000</font>, BB calls t2000.

Turn: (t6140) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (t6140) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t4000</font>, Hero?

Re: PS $100k AA river decision
 

yea i call. you're going to hear from sets much earlier, and there arent a whole lot of 7's in his range.

Re: PS $100k AA river decision
 

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yea i call. you're going to hear from sets much earlier, and there arent a whole lot of 7's in his range.

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I also probably call because I am a huge station, but I'm not convinced it's the right play.

T7 gets there on the river. All of the pair+gutty hands that he may check-call got there either by making a boat or by making a straight. Also, probably get a flop checkraise from the hands we want to see here (TT+, top 2).

I guess if he's the type to c/c with FD + overs, he could be bluffing those. If we're ahead more than 29% of the time here, it's not by a lot.

I guess maybe you could add in some random "I PUT YOU ON AK" flop calls like middle pair or even top pair bad kicker, that he realizes are unlikely to win a showdown, and that would possibly push this more towards a call.

Re: PS $100k AA river decision
 

I also call, there's enough bluffs or worse hands that can value bet here to call with those odds.

Re: PS $100k AA river decision
 

I dunno.. I think it's a fold for the reasons SM gave. Give him a reasonable range preflop and flop and he's got a lot of hands on the river that crush us and can value bet and only a few hands that can bluff. No hands that can value bet that we beat, IMHO.

Re: PS $100k AA river decision
 

depending on how laggy you are playing of course, i like a call. Versus a random person here in the stuper you are valuebetted by a worse hand more frequently.

Re: PS $100k AA river decision
 

You set up the river bluff on the turn. I'd call just because of that and expect to see JJ or QQ.

If villain is playing a set, he's not playing it like a set. Or at least I don't think he is. If he is putting you on TT+, then he could probably take a shot and figure you won't fold.

I could see maybe 66 here as the turn may have been a check-raise attempt. Overall though, I would think he thinks you are weak. I don't know if I can fold this.

Re: PS $100k AA river decision
 

yea I just don't see how u could ever fold with the way the hand went down

Re: PS $100k AA river decision
 

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You set up the river bluff on the turn. I'd call just because of that and expect to see JJ or QQ.

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Why in the world would you expect JJ or QQ given how the action went down?

Re: PS $100k AA river decision
 

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You set up the river bluff on the turn. I'd call just because of that and expect to see JJ or QQ.

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Why in the world would you expect JJ or QQ given how the action went down?

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Called a preflop raise, check/called a flop bet, checked the turn, bet the river on perceived weakness.