25NL: QQ on drawy flop gets 3bet big
 

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($24.95)
MP ($10.65)
CO ($27.25)
Hero ($27.45)
SB ($30.45)
BB ($39.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls $1.

Flop: ($2.85) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $1.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $13</font>, Hero...?

Villain is 45/5/infinity after 20 hands. Is this a clear fold or not?

- flop action looks like a fold to me. It looks like he is trying to extract max value, not to make me fold
- villain stats speak for calling / pushing. He could be donkey enough to do this with AJ type of hand or aggro enough to do this on a draw. Then again, only 20 hands.

Re: 25NL: QQ on drawy flop gets 3bet big
 

I don't know about you, but I don't fold QQ for a BI on this board against an opponent that's super-aggro postflop.

Re: 25NL: QQ on drawy flop gets 3bet big
 

Given the range I came up with it's a shove..

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.507% 52.44% 00.06% 36862 45.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 47.493% 47.43% 00.06% 33338 45.00 { 88-77, AJs, AsTs, KsQs, KJs, KsTs, QJs, JTs, J8s-J7s, T9s, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo, T9o }

Re: 25NL: QQ on drawy flop gets 3bet big
 

[ QUOTE ]
Given the range I came up with it's a shove..

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.507% 52.44% 00.06% 36862 45.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 47.493% 47.43% 00.06% 33338 45.00 { 88-77, AJs, AsTs, KsQs, KJs, KsTs, QJs, JTs, J8s-J7s, T9s, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo, T9o }

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't feel I have good enough reads to trust he is going to lead small - reraise "value-raise" non-push amount with say QJ after only 20 hands logged. There's a lot of variance in postflop aggression factor number for 20 hands (out of which he has played 9).

Re: 25NL: QQ on drawy flop gets 3bet big
 

Ok, that's reasonable.

What do you think his range is here?

Re: 25NL: QQ on drawy flop gets 3bet big
 

what's a BI

Re: 25NL: QQ on drawy flop gets 3bet big
 

this range is way too broad

def. take out all the KJ, QJ, KT

Re: 25NL: QQ on drawy flop gets 3bet big
 

this is a fold......... with my experience, even though hes an aggro monkey, aggro monkeys like to lead small so overpairs will re raise, then they know you have an overpair so they want to build a big pot now, he plays 45 percent of hands, he probably flopped 2 pair minimum....... I just think this is a bad shove spot, hes committed and you have no fold equity, its a flip if hes drawing....i say meh and fold

Re: 25NL: QQ on drawy flop gets 3bet big
 

[ QUOTE ]
what's a BI

[/ QUOTE ]

buy-in

Re: 25NL: QQ on drawy flop gets 3bet big
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, that's reasonable.

What do you think his range is here?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's pretty hard to think he would play like this with a draw. I would see for example nut flush draw reraising all-in instead of leaving $10 behind, in order to maximize his FE. That would leave him with basically better hands and AJ and not a good spot at all.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.652% 31.65% 00.00% 20055 0.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 68.348% 68.35% 00.00% 43305 0.00 { JJ, 88-77, AJs, J8s-J7s, T9s, 87s, AJo, J8o-J7o, T9o, 87o }

Even if you add KJ you are still behind 47-53. Now, if you add all nut flush draws and enough several combo-draw/pair+draw type of hands (pretty hard to figure out a complete set of these) you start to get ahead of his range but as I said I don't think those are that likely the way he played on the flop.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.686% 55.69% 00.00% 53475 0.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 44.314% 44.31% 00.00% 42555 0.00 { JJ, 88-77, AKs, ATs-A9s, A6s-A2s, J9s+, T8s+, 96s, AJo, J9o+, T9o }