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-   -   25NL - AKo easy PF question (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=405467)

Superman26gt 05-17-2007 01:39 PM

25NL - AKo easy PF question
 
75/41/3 - 12 hands

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($6.31)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($26.69)</font>
UTG ($77.37)
MP ($23.80)
CO ($11.52)
Hero ($55.28)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $7.35</font>, UTG folds, CO folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $10.20

Just want to check this really quick with you guys

Grunch 05-17-2007 02:06 PM

Re: 25NL - AKo easy PF question
 
All-in.

Gullanian 05-17-2007 02:07 PM

Re: 25NL - AKo easy PF question
 
The thing is, at worst (forgetting AA/KK) you are 50/50 to win the hand.

Becuase you have already invested $2.25 in the pot, you are priced in. You have to call unless you have a rock solid read that your opponent has AA/KK.

Superman26gt 05-17-2007 02:14 PM

Re: 25NL - AKo easy PF question
 
[ QUOTE ]
All-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because of villain?

or

AI unless strong reads otherwise?

Superman26gt 05-17-2007 02:15 PM

Re: 25NL - AKo easy PF question
 
[ QUOTE ]
Becuase you have already invested $2.25 in the pot, you are priced in. You have to call unless you have a rock solid read that your opponent has AA/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do we need a strong read he has AA/KK?

What if he has AA/KK here 25%?

Grunch 05-17-2007 02:19 PM

Re: 25NL - AKo easy PF question
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because of villain?

or

AI unless strong reads otherwise?

[/ QUOTE ]

All-in because you have a great deal of equity against his entire range (virtually regardless of your reads of him), but only if you see all 5 cards. And also because you have a great deal of fold equity against many hands that have an edge against you; namely small to mid pocket pairs.

Superman26gt 05-17-2007 02:24 PM

Re: 25NL - AKo easy PF question
 
ok, makes sense, but lets say his range is..

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.059% 43.09% 04.97% 70831646 8168272.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 51.941% 46.97% 04.97% 77212994 8168272.00 { 22+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }

I'm assuming he is calling a shove with almost all of this range. He seems like one of those players that wants to gamble and once he puts in $7 he is not going to let go

SwingVelvet 05-17-2007 02:33 PM

Re: 25NL - AKo easy PF question
 
so even with your calculations (no fold equity), it's still a coin flip. Since you already invested some money, you are priced in

Grunch 05-17-2007 02:35 PM

Re: 25NL - AKo easy PF question
 
[ QUOTE ]
75/41/3 - 12 hands

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($6.31)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($26.69)</font>
UTG ($77.37)
MP ($23.80)
CO ($11.52)
Hero ($55.28)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $7.35</font>, UTG folds, CO folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $10.20

Just want to check this really quick with you guys

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, well I don't think the Deuces is calling every time, but w/e. Let's use your own equity assumptions:

[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.059% 43.09% 04.97% 70831646 8168272.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 51.941% 46.97% 04.97% 77212994 8168272.00 { 22+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }

[/ QUOTE ]

When the action comes back to you there is 10.10 in the pot and you have 19.34 behind. The EV of a push is:

EV = (.48*29.44)-(.52*19.34) = 14.13-10.06 = +4.07

Which is a huge ammount of equity. Folding has an EV of zero by definition, so pushing is much better than folding.

Superman26gt 05-17-2007 02:40 PM

Re: 25NL - AKo easy PF question
 
ohhhh...ok now I get it. Thanks Grunch


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