NL400: AA facing heat on flop
 

No reads.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (8 handed)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG+1 ($390.20)
MP1 ($400)
MP2 ($658)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($451)</font>
Button ($101.05)
SB ($518.45)
BB ($1054.60)
<font color="#C00000">UTG ($390.45)</font>

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $16</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls $16, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $52</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls $36, MP2 folds.

Flop: ($126) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

UTG: checks
Hero: bets $94
UTG: raises $244.45 to $338.45 and is all-in
Hero: ???

What is your play and why?

Bear in mind that you are getting 558:224 or 2.3:1. You need 30% equity to call. If he has a set, you have ~8% equity. If you are ahead, assume you have 90% equity vs. range of AQ + KK. So you need to be ahead about 25% of the time to call (90% * 25% = 22.5% + 8% = 30.5%).

Re: NL400: AA facing heat on flop
 

I don't think you are good here 25% of the time.

You're hand is pretty obvious. With a known villain who doesn't get out of line too much I like to think I can find a fold.

Is it worth $240 to see the hand he does this with? Sometimes I'll stack off with TPTK to an unknown for metagame and information, or maybe I'm just fishy.

Also, recently I've been making PSBs preflop, which if I'm not mistaken is $64(?) here. Would it have made a difference to you if the flop action was you leading $108 into a $144 pot, and having to call $218 into the $642 pot?

What if you made it $80 preflop? Would you be pissed taking down only the $32 in the pot? Your image comes into play here, as if you're someone who 3-bets light you might get these calls. If you're seen as a rock there's no sense in overbetting only AA, I suppose.

Re: NL400: AA facing heat on flop
 

Call.

Board: 4d Ts Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.484% 69.06% 03.42% 65634 3255.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 27.516% 24.09% 03.42% 22896 3255.00 { QQ+, AQs, AQo }

Board: 4d Ts Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.061% 57.06% 05.00% 33894 2970.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 37.939% 32.94% 05.00% 19566 2970.00 { QQ+ }


Board: 4d Ts Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.152% 07.65% 12.50% 303 495.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 79.848% 67.35% 12.50% 2667 495.00 { AA, QQ }

Re: NL400: AA facing heat on flop
 

Were do you leave a set of tens or fours in his range??? He has enough odds preflop to call with that.

Re: NL400: AA facing heat on flop
 

Well maybe he had; in that case my stove is wrong.

Re: NL400: AA facing heat on flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you are good here 25% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't either. I can't see KK or AQ checkraising all in unless he is a total fish. KK has to be worried about AA or QQ based on my 3bet preflop. In many ways, a QTx board is one of the worst for KK in a 3bet pot preflop.

And AQ has to be worried about AA-QQ.

90% of the time or more, I think his CRai has to be QQQ or TTT or maybe AA.

Re: NL400: AA facing heat on flop
 

Without a read you can easily lay this down

Re: NL400: AA facing heat on flop
 

That's a laydown without reads.