turn trips but bet into on river, what to do?
 

villian is 40/9/1 over bout 60 hands

my stats are 27/16/3


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed)

BB ($22.20)
UTG ($10.10)
MP ($34.50)
CO ($13.05)
Hero ($49.35)
SB ($40.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif.
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.75</font>, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold[/i]</font>.

Flop: ($1.75) Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif 2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero bets $1.5</font>, SB calls $1.50.

Turn: ($4.75) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif 2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero bets $4.75</font>, SB calls $4.75.

River: ($14.25) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif 2 players)</font>
SB bets $8</font>, <font color="red"> </font>



what is the move on the river, call, push???

Re: turn trips but bet into on river, what to do?
 

I would call, seems like he might be crazy enough to call J8

Re: turn trips but bet into on river, what to do?
 

you lose to Jc8c, T9, Q9, 55. you win agiant annother nine, QJ, QT, I think QQ,TT raises pf here or flop or turn. I think theres lots of hands he could have here that you beat. If you raise to like 24 I think you'll get a call enough of the time out of QJ.

Re: turn trips but bet into on river, what to do?
 

thats what im getting at

its a call at the least, but is it profitable in the long run to raise this bet. i know i will lose sometimes, but will the times i raise, get called and take it down more than make up for this??

is it just a call every time??


villian is too passive to push j8 on a paired board imo

Re: turn trips but bet into on river, what to do?
 

There is really no way to calculate how many times you will get called because it is player dependant. It seems you are being to results oriented with your decisions. I don't feel like a big raise on the river is going to do anything for your winrate but bring it down. Most times villain isn't going to call a push unless he has a hand that beats you. If you're raising on the river then raise for value.

Re: turn trips but bet into on river, what to do?
 

i guess im asking is it spew to raise here without the nuts or is it better just call and show it down

Re: turn trips but bet into on river, what to do?
 

This is an interesting question, and this is really close.

Personally I would probably just call, but I'm a scared nit. I am starting to think that raisin here is probably +EV.

Re: turn trips but bet into on river, what to do?
 

I would just call with this board villian is either block betting and won't call a raise, or he sucks and is poorly value betting a big hand. With his low AF I'm leaning towards him having a big hand. The only hands I can see him maybe calling a river raise is Q10cc, AQcc, KQcc, QJcc.