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-   -   WPEX Pai Gow poker +EV? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=390195)

Johnny#5 04-27-2007 11:24 PM

WPEX Pai Gow poker +EV?
 
Most likely not, but their hand setting algorithm is a little off:

http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/2327/paigowge1.jpg

Dealer's hand is up top ... wonder how long before they correct it. It also failed to split quads but I didn't take a screen shot of that. I know, the $1 bet isn't exactly balla but whatever.

SamIAm 05-02-2007 04:53 AM

Re: WPEX Pai Gow poker +EV?
 
Wow. WizardOfOdds says that the house advantage when betting Player (I assume you can't play Banker online.) is 2.7%. I expect that's large enough to still be positive after WPEX screws up, but I'm not at all sure.

Johnny#5 09-03-2007 07:13 AM

Re: WPEX Pai Gow poker +EV?
 
Bumping my old thread. I forgot about this for a while and then decided to mess around with it a little. The dealer's hand setting is still off to the point of ridiculousness. These are all from a single session and all happened within a 45 minute period. This game may still be -EV but it can't be too bad a gamble, can it? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

http://img65.imageshack.us/img65/7712/paigow1hf8.jpg
http://img61.imageshack.us/img61/3615/paigow2hk5.jpg
http://img61.imageshack.us/img61/2973/paigow3su2.jpg
http://img201.imageshack.us/img201/8164/paigow4ye2.jpg
http://img61.imageshack.us/img61/4418/paigow5ro6.jpg
http://img61.imageshack.us/img61/8293/paigow6gg1.jpg
http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/7379/paigow7hu2.jpg

These are downright comical.

SheetWise 09-03-2007 11:04 AM

Re: WPEX Pai Gow poker +EV?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Most likely not, but their hand setting algorithm is a little off:

[/ QUOTE ]
A little? Those are absurd. I would guess 5% easily. The only thing that would concern me is that you can't see the code, and don't know the level of oversight.

Consider scratch lottery tickets -- when printing, the computer first determines the outcome -- then prints a ticket to confirm the outcome. When the scratch "game" being played represents cards or dice -- the results are so skewed that randomness is beyond belief. Yet, I think the reason states keep modeling scratchers on casino games is because some people must believe the results are random.

If a Pai Gow Poker game was coded this way -- so that results are determined at random to conform with expectation, and then the display is programmed to confirm the results -- then the hands that were "misplayed" could simply represent a predetermined loss or push. Because the expectation is so close -- this approach would be a lot more subtle than in a lottery.

From the house perspective, this could be a very profitable way to present the game -- when there is a predetermined player "win", you could "occasionally" give the player a "winning" hand that includes a very subtle, non-intuitive "proper" play in order to collect the "win". You could also skip over a number of predetermined "pushes".

While I would believe the win/loss results are random, I wouldn't necessarily believe that I was "playing cards".

metsandfinsfan 09-03-2007 12:47 PM

Re: WPEX Pai Gow poker +EV?
 
i doubt WPEX would be crooked
weird stuff im gonna play a little

metsandfinsfan 09-03-2007 01:04 PM

Re: WPEX Pai Gow poker +EV?
 
awesome i just lost a quick 40 bux

rigged

Johnny#5 09-04-2007 11:47 PM

Re: WPEX Pai Gow poker +EV?
 
Okay, this thing is seriously jacked up. WTF is this?

http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/337/paigow8ly6.jpg

I mean, it actually screwed up in my favor, but the fact that it is misreading the hand it's displaying is disturbing.


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