AA Checkraised, dry board.
 

Ok maybe this is a standardish hand but I'm usually unsure on every street in these kind of spots versus unknowns.

Villain is 25/10 over 100ish hands. No other read. I'm 22/16 tight-side postflop. I definitely hadn't seen him checkraise the raiser today.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($398)
Hero ($531)
Button ($434.20)
SB ($627.50)
BB ($431.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $12</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $10, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($28) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $21</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $77</font>, Hero calls $56.

Turn: ($182) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $155</font>, Hero calls $155.

River: ($492) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

If he shoves, do you call? If he checks, do you shove? If yes to both, which one's closer? $297 left.

How bad does he have to be for shoving turn to be correct? Against a donkey who can have lots of K's and will c-r any K (or at least KQ-KJ) that's probably my most common line.

Re: AA Checkraised, dry board.
 

i definitely call a shove because all of his 2 pair hands just went away. i'd also shove because i don't think that 99 or 66 give up here very often, and you'll often get called by Kx. this would've been a good bit tougher if the board hadn't paired.

as for shoving the turn, that is my standard line against donks. not sure how i'd play it against a better player.

Re: AA Checkraised, dry board.
 

after you call the turn bet he is definatly putting you on a hand. maybe he has 87 but thats the only draw. is he not 3beting pf w/ AK? is he really shoving less than ak? without reads i don't normally call the turn bet. But my games are less agro than ftp/ps so it may be correct to fold on absolute, but incorrect to fold on ftp vs a std 25/10.

also i've noticed a trend with players that have a high vpip in relation to their pfr ie 25/10 vs 25/18. that trend being that their raises are less often BS, particularly when the board is that dry. they seem to follow the, 'i want to see a flop' mentality, while being neither a total donkey, nor being overly agro postflop.

i'm interested to see others thoughts though

Re: AA Checkraised, dry board.
 

this river means either call shove or shove if checked to

Re: AA Checkraised, dry board.
 

I don't see how you can fold the river to a push if you called the turn. I'm also value shoving all day when checked to.

Re: AA Checkraised, dry board.
 

I think the river is a super easy shove. I think the turn is interesting. Im not so sure Im calling here against a 25/10. I would consider letting it go.

Re: AA Checkraised, dry board.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how you can fold the river to a push if you called the turn. I'm also value shoving all day when checked to.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with the bold. Not just in this hand, in general. Of course you can call the turn and fold a blank river. Range for a turn shove is different than a river shove. (I don't mean I think the river would be a fold necessarily; the reasoning is what I don't like.)

Also I know bottom card pairing is usually great for overpairs but I'm not sure the second 3 really changes much. It moves me ahead of K9, K6, and 96. How likely are any of these?

Re: AA Checkraised, dry board.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how you can fold the river to a push if you called the turn. I'm also value shoving all day when checked to.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with the bold. Not just in this hand, in general. Of course you can call the turn and fold a blank river. Range for a turn shove is different than a river shove. (I don't mean I think the river would be a fold necessarily; the reasoning is what I don't like.)

Also I know bottom card pairing is usually great for overpairs but I'm not sure the second 3 really changes much. It moves me ahead of K9, K6, and 96. How likely are any of these?

[/ QUOTE ]
money, I think easy push or small VBET if checked to, but calling a shove is a pretty close decision IMO.

Re: AA Checkraised, dry board.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how you can fold the river to a push if you called the turn. I'm also value shoving all day when checked to.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with the bold. Not just in this hand, in general. Of course you can call the turn and fold a blank river. Range for a turn shove is different than a river shove. (I don't mean I think the river would be a fold necessarily; the reasoning is what I don't like.)

Also I know bottom card pairing is usually great for overpairs but I'm not sure the second 3 really changes much. It moves me ahead of K9, K6, and 96. How likely are any of these?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I was speaking specifically with regards to my feelings towards this hand. If villain is check/raising pretty dry flop, leading turn, I get the strong impression he's pushing almost every river with ALMOST the same frequency as the turn bet. I think K9 is a small possibility, with 96 being 2nd. I don't see many people playing hands with large gaps, and unless 96 decided to turn his hand into a bluff is fairly unlikely.

*edit* K9 being the most likely hand of that range. Also I think calling a river push is relatively close, but it's an easy value bet if checked too. *edit*

Results
 

So he checked and I checked behind. As I was checking behind I called myself a retard for not shoving, but it's ok because I doubt he was calling because he had J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for the total flop bluff, turn semibluff, potentially suicide-inducing runner-runner flush.

lol.

maybe the fact that he gave up on the bluff means something as far as the difference between calling the turn and calling the river, but I dunno.

I think it should be a value shove when checked to and calling a shove is a lot closer. I don't see 99 or 66 checking the river very often, not nearly as often as a K; when he shoves I feel like my hand is almost a bluffcatcher.

This hand kinda reminds me of a hand from a while ago, where I raised QQ in position and potted every street of a J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] board and lost to A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] who checkcalled down to stack me. Different flop/turn action so they aren't really the same at all, but I thought of it because the "villain check river w/ monster when a check is going to convince me I almost always have the best hand" possibility is similar.