I try some FPS which seems to lead nowhere
 

live 2/5

first of all, there's sort of a setup hand. except it was against someone else. but this dude was at the table, so he must have seen it. it was maybe 30 minutes ago? no clue if he remembers it or anything, but there's a good chance that he would... maybe? anyway, might be best to start with my image

I had a pretty snug image at this table and decided it was the right time to spend some of my bluffing equity when the BB led out on a T42 board with two hearts. I had limped with Ad5d so I have a gutter, overcard, and a backdoor flush draw. I raise because they'll put me on a set and fold a whole lot of the time, and I have some backup outs. Shortstack moves in for just a bit more, BB calls, and I have to call too. I spike my black 3 on the turn and BB calls my push with Th3h and gets there. My play on the flop was viewed by the table as being shockingly unsound, cuz these live morans don't even understand the concept of making moves and picking up pots when no one has a big hand. After that I sorta botched a 77 hand and ended up all in on a 9x8h6h flop against a guy who had raised preflop with Th9h. Ugh dead outs.

So at this point my image is like sorta bad. I did win a decent pot with KK but then lost one too. I'm stuck a lot now. The only really big hand I've shown was actually one where I slowplayed the flop on the button (checked to me, had the deck badly crippled). So yeah, I'm not looking so good.

I waited a while to rebuild my bluffing equity before trying to steal anymore pots, and then I found a good spot for one, which is the setup hand.

Some dude opened in LP and he was capable of making just pure steals there. He once had 62o, but his stealing frequency was much lower than what that hand would indicate. We can call him a poor TAG perhaps. I called from the BB and a JTx flop went check-check. Another J came on the turn and I checked, he bet $30, I raised to $90 and he folded. I did not show.

Now we're finally at the hand in question, like 30 minutes later.

Folded to me in mid-late position and I open for $20 with AJo. I'm called by the button, who is a tight passive player. He's sorta shortstacked, like $250-300.

The flop is QJx rainbow and I don't really see any benefit to betting the flop, or any drawback to checking, so I check. He checks too.

The turn is another J, and I check again, he bets $20, and I raise to $60. He calls after about 10 seconds of thought.

The river is a K. Now I don't know what to do cuz that card makes it harder for him to call with a bluff-catcher (this may not make a lot of sense, but he is not an expert hand reader) and also because the only jack I beat now basically is JT. He only has a bit more than the size of the pot left. I check, intending to call. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: I try some FPS which seems to lead nowhere
 

well if they think you bet with crap, why not bet with trips? I can see you taking them to valuetown on a queen here, since they think you play bad.

Re: I try some FPS which seems to lead nowhere
 

My turn plan was to bet the river but for some reason the K froze me. I dunno, I just felt that the K would discourage him from trying to pick off a bluff cuz now he could be like "well, now I can't even beat AK!" I didn't have any specific reason to believe this, but it's what went through my head at the time.

Re: I try some FPS which seems to lead nowhere
 

And I felt that most of the hands which would call a river bet would also bet the river when checked to, esp if he does have the JT.

I also really didn't want to bet like $110 and then face an all-in for like $75 more cuz I almost have to call it yet almost always lose.

Re: I try some FPS which seems to lead nowhere
 

Stack sizes make this spot pretty sick.

Can you bet/fold for like half pot? Do you think he'd push a worse J? If not, I would just shove, and hope he has the case J/KQ or something.

Turn c/r vs bet depends on player, but can obviously be fine, especially live, where you can tell if he's gonna bet.

Re: I try some FPS which seems to lead nowhere
 

'The flop is QJx rainbow and I don't really see any benefit to betting the flop'

uhm, so they peel with t8, j6, 77, a9.

not saying i hate checking, cause i don't and think it's def +ev(anything but outright folding prob is), but betting is prob way more +ev.

as it is i would just v-bet riv, dunno y u let the k freeze you up. fwiw i like the dbl chk.

Re: I try some FPS which seems to lead nowhere
 

I don't have enough info on him to answer that. Remember, dude is playing tight so I don't get to see but a few hands that he plays postflop at 25 hands per hour. Although I think I played with him once last summer, but that didn't even occur to me until later...

I also don't really know to what degree he'd loosen up with position, or to what degree he realizes my range opens up from LP.

My gut tells me that he wouldn't raise the river with JT unless my bet was silly-small, because my line looks like either a slowplay or a bluff, and there are quite a few slowplayed hands that beat him. But I'm not sure on this.

But it does bring up the possibility of doing a bet of like $25 or something, calling a raise.

Re: I try some FPS which seems to lead nowhere
 

[ QUOTE ]
'The flop is QJx rainbow and I don't really see any benefit to betting the flop'

uhm, so they peel with t8, j6, 77, a9.

[/ QUOTE ]

I forgot this dude was even at the table until he called my raise. In PT stats we could call him like 14/4 or something.

Re: I try some FPS which seems to lead nowhere
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
'The flop is QJx rainbow and I don't really see any benefit to betting the flop'

uhm, so they peel with t8, j6, 77, a9.

[/ QUOTE ]

I forgot this dude was even at the table until he called my raise. In PT stats we could call him like 14/4 or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea, that changes a lot then. i still bet the river though.

Re: I try some FPS which seems to lead nowhere
 

I think you can get away with a bet/fold line vs a lot of lineups. I don't think you get bluff raised, hardly ever.

[ QUOTE ]
But it does bring up the possibility of doing a bet of like $25 or something, calling a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
I really hate this line, vs this guy, and don't really like vs many, on this board, with this action.