Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

For this scenario, you will play the hand from the seat of my opponent. As in my post from two nights ago, I am curious as to how people think about and analyze particular hands as they are unfolding.

The tournament is the final round of the $300 modified shootout at the foxwoods poker classic.

Blinds are T50/T100, and average stack is about T5,700.

You have around T9,000, and I have around T6,300.

So far, I have been playing relatively tightly, and have shown good aggression when I feel my hand is best. I also have reraised you on one occasion preflop, and you folded. Neither of us showed our cards in that instance.

One limper, and you raise to T300 from late position with 9s 9c.

I reraise to T900.

Folded back to you. You think for a moment, and make it T2,500.

I declare myself all-in.

Do you:

a. Fold your cards face up?

b. Turn your cards over in order to try to get a reaction from me as to the relative strength of our hands?

c. Insta-call?


When answering this question, please include thought processes and reasoning regarding what you believe I might be holding.

Thank you, and am looking forward to your comments.


TK

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

so. its t3800 to call into a t9000 pot?

i guess i'd put u on QQ+/AK. its a close call against that range. but i also wouldnt have 3-bet to t2500 if i wasnt calling a push, so i dont know what to say about that.

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

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i also wouldnt have 3-bet to t2500 if i wasnt calling a push, so i dont know what to say about that.

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Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

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i also wouldnt have 3-bet to t2500 if i wasnt calling a push, so i dont know what to say about that.

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My thoughts as well. I wondered "why did I do that." Now that I'm apparently folding I muck the cards and say "nice hand sir." I don't want you to know what I had.

so, does it make sense to call the all-in here?
 

Thus far, the only people who have responded to this post have indicated they would not have re-raised to t2,500 if they were not planning to call a push. The question then becomes whether my initial re-raise demonstrated sufficient strength to make one reconsider whether the pocket 9's were in fact the best hand. Obviously, when my opponent popped it to t2,500, he thought his pair was good.

Does anyone here believe my second re-raise is a desperate attempt to steal, or is there a chance that such action announces a good hand? And, if you decide my second re-raise says a higher pair, are you really getting the right price to call?

Once again, am looking forward to the analyses.


TK

Re: so, does it make sense to call the all-in here?
 

If you seem to know what you're doing you might think I'm stealing with Ax, any 2 broadway, PP, or any connector. I would put you on AT+, KQ, 66+ which is hardly a desperate attempt to steal. I like to play flops, so I would call your 3 bet which should be scarier for you then a reraise and play post flop poker with position while also keeping the pot small. Any kind of 4 bet is gonna pot commit me to calling a push from you so I'd like to see a flop.

As played villain didn't play too badly, just differently then I do his 3 bet isn't horrible especially since 99 doesn't play real well post flop and you're only shoving with the bigger hands that are killing him (AA, KK, QQ) and the others that are flipping (AK, maybe AQ).

EDIT: As far as your question: C) I instacall then puke and wonder why I got myself pot committed with 99.

Re: so, does it make sense to call the all-in here?
 

i raise to 400. at this point i don't care what you have

if that is the case i assume you raise to 1200 instead of 900?? at this point i flat call for a flop since it's a live tourney and i'm thinking i can deff outplay you post flop, even with a hand like 99 (i put you on a range of ATs+, AJ+, 99+, 10% bluff chance, and you are in a strange spot out of position with about 2x the pot and would hate to push AK on a blank flop). as you type that i'm in late position but don't say where you are, so i'll assume you are the SB or BB) at this point i think i'm in control of the hand unless you are a stone with no tells (zeejustin style).

but that's just me.

if i get to where this villain is (which i wouldn't), i'm choosing
d) folding face down cause i'm annoyed i had to lay down 99 to your possible AK as i probably put you on QQ+,AK... and i think i'm better off out playing the tourney later than standing here to stack you and leave myself with t2,700.

A note regarding position in this hand....
 

Some people have noted that I did not reveal my position relative to yours. Because I have declared myself to be all-in, it did not seem to me that position is any longer an issue, since there will be no more betting if you decide to call. However, for the sake of completeness, I began the hand in the cutoff, and you were one seat to my right.

The responses have been interesting so far, and am looking forward to reading more of them.


TK

Re: Placing you in opponent\'s seat....
 

Well, I'm pretty awful at reading people so I definitely don't show you my cards. In fact, I never show my cards if I don't have to ESPECIALLY live because I really need to keep as much information secret as possible.

Now, you've shown a lot of strength and there's little chance I can play this properly post flop so I gotta either commit now or fold and given the pot is what it is (9250?)... I guess I shrug and call. Three betting to 2500 is not in my repetoire, I'd probably have either folded or reraised all-in in that spot. Edit: No, it's too much to push I probably either fold or call. Weak? Edit2: For range I might expect any pocket pair with AK, AQ rounding it off. You might have made the first raise with a HUGE range, but the fourth bet all-in eliminates a lot of those so I'll stick with the above. I think you play more smaller pockets than the others give you credit for, but I could be completely wrong.

Of course, all this comes from a rather inexperienced tournament player coming from limit cash and shorthanded limit cash games.

cjx

So, what is the right price (if any) to call here?
 

Some of you have indicated you feel the only way I am coming back over the top all-in is with a higher pocket pair than 99. Others have said they might think my holding is as weak as 66, but probably nothing less than that.

My question then becomes this:

If you believe I am five-betting all-in with nothing less than a pair of sixes, then how likely is it that your pair of 9's is actually the best hand at this point? And, if you assume my initial re-raise was not done with a weak hand (even if it were, a second re-raise all-in should have erased those doubts), then do you believe you really are "priced in" by calling the last bet with a holding that almost certainly is no better than a coin-flip?

Just out of curiousity, how many of you feel that, as played, I am holding something that in fact is beating 99 pre-flop?

As always, I am enjoying this discussion.


TK