NL$500 - Turn decision w TP against aggressive opponent
 

After thinking some about it, I think this hand is very interesting although it may seem basic. I'll let you answer first before I elaborate on my thoughts.

Villain is loose preflop (no stats) and likes to call with random broadways and many suited hands (Axs, SC, two- or even threegappers etc) even oop. He has been passive preflop but can turn aggressive postflop with both draws and strong hands. He loves to bluff the river w his busted draws.

Seat 1: Villain( $763.60 )
Seat 2: Bystander 1( $479.40 )
Seat 3: Bystander 2 ( $732.80 )
Seat 4: Hero ( $500 )
Seat 5: Bystander 3 ( $440 )
Seat 6: Bystander 4 ( $636.10 )
Villain posts small blind [$2.50]
Bystander 1 posts big blind [$5]

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Kc, Tc ]
Bystander 2 [$5]
Hero raises to [$22.50]
Bystander 3 folds
Bystander 4 folds
Villain calls [$20]
Bystander 1 folds
Bystander 2 folds

** Dealing Flop ** [ Jh, Kh, 6c ]
Villain bets [$55]
Hero calls [$55]

** Dealing Turn ** [ 2s ]
Villain [$80]
Hero ?

What do you do? If call, what's your plan for river if he fires again? Flop call standard?

Re: NL$500 - Turn decision w TP against aggressive opponent
 

No you were right the first time, it isn't very interesting. Call.

Re: NL$500 - Turn decision w TP against aggressive opponent
 

Which river cards do we call/fold against given that we see a third barrel (which is highly likely against this guy, whether he has set/2pair or a busted draw)?

Re: NL$500 - Turn decision w TP against aggressive opponent
 

Call here and if you think he bluffs the river a lot with missed QT/hearts then call a bet on a blank river. I'm folding most heart rivers.

Re: NL$500 - Turn decision w TP against aggressive opponent
 

My concern is that are just so many scare cards on the river IMO. Any heart, A, Q, T, 9, 7, 6, 5 fits into his range here, right? And If I fold to often on the river then the turn call isn't profitable any more...

Re: NL$500 - Turn decision w TP against aggressive opponent
 

I think calling a Q, T, 7, 6, 5 scarecards is pretty ridiculous, given your read i'd call most bets on most rivers barring hearts and maybe A or 9

Re: NL$500 - Turn decision w TP against aggressive opponent
 

Ok, I'll be more specific. This is a situation where most people would say call the turn and call the river unless X hits. Is it really? Are there no other options on the turn?

So let's say we call the river unless it's a heart, A or a 9. Assuming we fold to a scarecard 30% of the time, he actually has us beat 30% of the time, we catch his bluff 30% of the time, and he checks (and we check behind) the last 10% of the time (and sometimes he still has us beat when he checks obv, f.e. when an A hits and he has Ahxh). This is EV+. If we make this assumptions, calling on the turn is worth roughly $25 in the long run. That is good. So we should call the turn right?

What's the EV of raising the turn here, turning our TP into a bluff? Assuming he has us beat 30% of the time (and always call when he has us beat and folds when he is on a draw), and we push the turn, our EV is $45 (and the more we weight his range towards a draw/air, the higher that EV is).
.
45>25

Yeah, my numbers are pretty arbitrary, but I think this question is still valid: When villains range mostly consists of draws, shouldn't we sometimes rather raise him off his draw than call him down if we have to fold against too many scarecards when he fires his third barrel?