200NL; Facing large overbet on turn with TPTK
 

Villain is running at 30/3 with fairly low (1.5) aggression, although this aggression has mainly come on the turn. Has been complaining about a couple of (genuine) beats he took.

I have not often seen an overbet like this. How do you guys interpret it? What is your response?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($309.40)
Button ($222.65)
SB ($200.85)
BB ($168)
Hero ($195.55)
UTG+1 ($40)
UTG+2 ($353.20)
MP1 ($158)
MP2 ($329.92)
MP3 ($253.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls $8, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($19) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $14</font>, MP3 calls $14.

Turn: ($47) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets $60</font>.

Final Pot: $107

Re: 200NL; Facing large overbet on turn with TPTK
 

Looks like a legit hand to me. Probably just called 88 or 99 and is scared of losing his action on a diamond/6/7 river

Best case scenario he's got AK too i'd say.

I can lay it to a player with low aggression like this.

Re: 200NL; Facing large overbet on turn with TPTK
 

He may be steaming after the beats, putting you on QQ-/AQ- (you checked turn remember?) and figuring he can take this pot. I call and reeval river. If you induce a bluff you have to call it.

JMHO.

Re: 200NL; Facing large overbet on turn with TPTK
 

why would you check this turn OP? i can only think of two reasons, both of which will involve knowing what to do if he bets.

Re: 200NL; Facing large overbet on turn with TPTK
 

Good comment. When I checked I did believe I was probably ahead, but was not confident enough in this to want to stack off. I was therefore looking to induce another bet on a dry board, and take down a medium size pot. The size of the bet was something I have not often seen - Belok's reasoning seems compelling to me as to why it might be made. Is the bet size sufficiently compelling for me to change original plan in this instance?

Re: 200NL; Facing large overbet on turn with TPTK
 

i dont think you should call here because of the poor odds vs the amount of time its a better hand. i do think that your thinking was a bit flawed. you thought you were ahead here but didnt want to stack off. seems to me the best option is to bet the turn and fold to a raise. you should be behind almost all the time when he raises. if he just calls you can re-evaluate on the river. another reason to check the turn is because you feel sure you are ahead and that villain will put a lot of money in with a worse hand, in which case you can CRAI.

Re: 200NL; Facing large overbet on turn with TPTK
 

he's 30 vpip. he can have anything. just bet the turn.

Re: 200NL; Facing large overbet on turn with TPTK
 

As played, and due to his recent complaining about beats, I have to think he has a monster, and is overprotecting it against any draws out there. Pot is small enough to lay it down without too much doubt.

Re: 200NL; Facing large overbet on turn with TPTK
 

i think that i raise his bet, looks like to me he wants to get some fold equity and has a redraw, any pocket pair(inlcudeing trips) and some king hands. i pooooooosh, i know it seems odd.

Re: 200NL; Facing large overbet on turn with TPTK
 

Fold, 67 just got there and a set is very likely