Semibluffing vs. Value Betting
 

Let's say I have JhTh, and I know for whatever reason that my opponent has 22. The flop is 8h9h6s.

If I bet, is it a value bet or a semi-bluff or something else?

Re: Semibluffing vs. Value Betting
 

As you are currently behind, it is a semibluff. You are representing something that beats his 22, but if he calls, you have lots of outs(21 plus about 1.5 for the board to double pair) to improve to the best hand.

A value bet is when you have the best hand, or a draw to it, that will come in more often than the percentage of money you are putting into the pot(your pot equity>your share of the ingoing bets). For example(limit holdem) you hold Ah7h on the button, the board is 2h 8s Kh and you have four opponents. Your flush will come in 35% of the time, but you are only putting in 20% of the money - you have an equity advantage. When the first player bets out and everyone calls, you should raise here since you have an equity advantage. As long as the pot is more than 3 way here you really don't care if the flop gets capped since you will win more than your fair share from this.

Re: Semibluffing vs. Value Betting
 

You're over a 2 to 1 favourite against 22. Clearly it's a value bet then.

Re: Semibluffing vs. Value Betting
 

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As you are currently behind, it is a semibluff.

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But how am I behind?

Re: Semibluffing vs. Value Betting
 

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You're over a 2 to 1 favourite against 22. Clearly it's a value bet then.

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Correct. You own WELL over 1/2 the equity in the pot since you have straight draws, flush draws, and overcard draws. I get 21 outs twice!

Here's a simple rule of thumb: if you want to get called, it's a value bet. If you don't want to get called but have an escape hatch in the form of a draw, it's a semi-bluff. If you believe you have no equity if you get called, it's a pure bluff.

In this case, you definitely want to get called so it's a value bet. If you were to miss and bet again on the turn, THAT would be a semi-bluff.

Re: Semibluffing vs. Value Betting
 

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As you are currently behind, it is a semibluff.

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But how am I behind?

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You're not. He's wrong.

Re: Semibluffing vs. Value Betting
 

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You're over a 2 to 1 favourite against 22. Clearly it's a value bet then.

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Correct...I totally goofed on this. Your equity is definitely greater than the amount you are putting in here(see second paragraph in my original reply). You are only putting in half of the money, but are a 2:1 favorite so this is a value bet.

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As you are currently behind, it is a semibluff.

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But how am I behind?

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You're not. He's wrong.

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You are currently behind, even though you expect to win the hand more often than not. Do not confuse having an equity advantage, with being ahead. To be ahead at this point, your hand would have to be able beat his 22 without improving, which it will not. You do not currently have the best hand, hence you are behind.

Re: Semibluffing vs. Value Betting
 

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Do not confuse having an equity advantage, with being ahead.

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I'm not so concerned that people are going to confuse the two. I'm confused that you're going to put undue emphasis on the concept of "being ahead" when it really doesn't matter one iota.

If the casino decided to precipitously hold the showdown two rounds early, and if the gaming authorities decided to allow it, then it would matter who's "ahead". Otherwise all that matters is equity in the pot.

Omaha is a great game to reinforce this concept. You can flop the nuts, say top set vs. a flush + wrap, and be a significant underdog. Top set is "ahead" there only in the most superficial sense.

Re: Semibluffing vs. Value Betting
 

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I'm not so concerned that people are going to confuse the two. I'm confused that you're going to put undue emphasis on the concept of "being ahead" when it really doesn't matter one iota.


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You are correct, equity is all that matters when decidng to bet the flop or not. But OP also asked

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But how am I behind?

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Even though he expects to win the pot more than 50% of the time, he has to improve to do it(obviously).