At what point can you fold into a Satellite seat?
 

I was playing in a $550 satellite yesterday for a $2650 seat.
56 entrants top 11 get a seat.
10k in chips w/ 30 min levels. blinds start at 100-100.

14 left avg chip stack about 40k. I have 31k on the cut off. blinds 1500-3k w/ 300 antes. table is very weak tight at this point. people are opening only w/ AK and JJ or better going all in pre-flop. Otherwise it's pretty much folding to the blinds where the BB gets a walk or they check it down.
What is optimum strategy here?

Re: At what point can you fold into a Satellite seat?
 

steal

Re: At what point can you fold into a Satellite seat?
 

I don't think you can ever "fold" your way into a satellite seat unless you are down to the bubble and you have a HUGE chip stack. If people are being nitty tight, then you need to keep stealing until they adjust. Make sure your stack is plenty healthy.

Re: At what point can you fold into a Satellite seat?
 

your effective M is about 7. you need to steal enough to keep it above 5. there's only 3 people in front of you than can wake up with a hand. steal. but it's easy to overdo the steals as well.

Re: At what point can you fold into a Satellite seat?
 

In order to answer this question you need to look at the other chip stacks. If there is 5-6 people on 10-15000 chips then you may be able to sit back for a while, only stealing with good cards. However, if you are near the bottom of the listings you'll need to start picking on the medium stacks and stay afloat through stealing the blinds. There is an excellent article on this in the anthology if I remember correctly.

Re: At what point can you fold into a Satellite seat?
 

I'd try to steal twice an orbit until your stack is 50k, hopefully you can get lucky and not have anyone play back at you before then.

At 40k, and in this scenario, you're definitely not in the float zone yet (although you are close).

Edit: I also would not raise over 2.5xbb, this has just as much fold equity IMO as larger raises.