NL25 AA vs drawy board
 

Vilain is a TAG player. Here I've a read that he's on a flushdraw and I don't want to give him a freecard or give him odds to do so. Good push on turn or not?

Just want to know if my reasoning is good here.
He has 18.65$ left. He has to put 18.65$ in a 31.65$ pot. If he calls and has a FD, he could win 50.30$ for 18.65$ 2.6:1

Theres 8 hearts left (I've the ace) so 8x2+1=17% chance to hit his FD so 5.8:1 if he dosent have a pair on board. If he has a pair on board he has 2more outs, so 10x2+1= 21% 4.7:1

I'm guessing if my read is good this is a EV+ push.

If I just bet the pot on turn which is 13.10$ I'm only going to have 11$ left and will be most likely pot commited basically because he will have nothing left. If I bet the pot on turn tought I'm giving him better odds to call. He will be 3:1 for his money, still a EV- money move from him but would be better. If he dosen't hit he's likely to just fold his 5$ left and I would win less.

Any toughts or remarks?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG+1 ($26.15)
MP1 ($26.25)
MP2 ($24.65)
MP3 ($7.15)
CO ($24.65)
Hero ($30.80)
SB ($10.40)
BB ($17.75)
UTG ($24.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls $1.75.

Flop: ($5.10) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, CO calls $4.

Turn: ($13.10) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $24.8 (All-In)</font>,

Re: NL25 AA vs drawy board
 

Your reasoning is quite sound.
But: when you bet the pot, you only have $11 left. But you are deeper than your opponent. So your effective stack is smaller. So effectively you only have $5 left.
You shouldn't forget one thing though: if you are confident about your read, you should want him to call here, because it'd be a bad call. So you shouldn't make a move that is most likely to scare him away. Like betting 24 into a 13 pot. If he has 18 left, bet that. It looks more reasonable compared to the pot-size. You should bet so much that he is still likely to call but bad anyway. Overbets are often not very effective in these cases.

Re: NL25 AA vs drawy board
 

Yeah I didn't really look how much he had left. Puting me allin was basically puting him allin so I didn't type the exact amount of money he had left. What do you mean by that ? "Overbets are often not very effective in these cases." In that case I've a read, how could a overbet woudlnt be the best option here since I'm WA.

Lets put in that situation. Lets say the stacks are deeper I've 100$ he has 80$ (still NL25).

sameplay PF FLOP.
now on turn pot is 13.10$ I've 94$ left and he has 72$. Here if I bet the pot he will likely just call and c/f if a heart dosent come, making me win 26.10$. Here if I overbet the pot, not only I will make more money if a heart dosent come, but I'm giving him less odds to call with. If I bet 20$ in a 13.10$ and calls I'll win 53.10$(26$ net) 83% of the time. Which means I'll lose 26$ 17% of the time.
so on 17/100 -26$ = -442$
83/100 +26$ = 2158$
2158-442= +1716$

Betting the pot :
same thing but 19$
17x-19/100= -323$
83x19/100= 1577$
1577-323= +1254$
Difference:
1716-1254= +462$

Isn't the optimal play when your opponent is drawing to the river overbeting the pot? I'm maybe totally wrong because I'm thinking also about FoldEquity that I didn't add in my calculation. I just want to know if I'm right or wrong and why. These cases being if you've a solid read on your opponent and you're 99% sure that he's drawing.

Re: NL25 AA vs drawy board
 

You just want him to make an FTOP mistake -- not just win the pot. If you bet x amount of the pot, he will not be getting his odds, with the effective stacks. I'm too lazy to figure it out, but it's probably about 2/3 pot and depends on how strong your read is that he is on a flush draw and whether you'll stack off if the last heart hits.

However, you've got the Ah -- How sure are you that he has the flush draw. That takes a lot of his weighted heart draws out of there (he's more likely to call Axh than a lot of other hands pf). Also, he's not likely to have the x2h at all (K2h TAG calls in FR???) -- If it was Js5h2h, he could have the draw and pair (KJh, QJh... etc) but not here enough to even consider it.

Re: NL25 AA vs drawy board
 

I pushed him around couple hands with CB earlier, and it's not the first time I sit on his left on PS and push him around. I thought he opened his card range vs me when I was raising PF even thought I've like 17% flopseen on that table in that session.

My read was solid, not 100% sure, but likely. He plays really str8foward and rarely CB. He does not lead with draw, he dosent c/r either, he always c/c on draw or allin on flop(had couple notes on him). If he has a set well be it, reload.

Theres couple hands he could have called me since I felt he was steaming. Suited connectors ? KQs.. I wasn't sure at all if he had a pair + FD, I just said IF he does that wouldve been the stats and odds.

So you wouldve bet 2/3 of the pot on turn here? like 8$ so
13+16=29$ 29:8 is 3.6:1. And it's giving me enought money left to make the best decision on river.

I guess I've to take the effective stacks in consideration next time.