$1+.10 UB, near bubble with AKs
 

UB $1+.10

60 places pay, about 70 people left, I'm around 50th in chips

t200/t400, t50 ante

Table stack sizes
SB t7630
BB t12855
UTG t14065
OrigamiSensei t6645
Villain t10985
MP1 t20465
MP2 t10110
MP3 t28385
CO t8800
Button t7315

Note I am the table short stack and about to get whacked with blinds soon

OrigamiSensei has A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Pre-flop (10 players):
1 fold, OrigamiSensei raises to 1200, Villain calls, 7 folds

Flop J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
OrigamiSensei ???

Of course I'm betting here but what's the right size? Push all-in or make a smaller value bet perhaps 3/4 of the pot? If I bet smaller what are the risks? What if I bet smaller and villain comes over the top?

PS I'm playing to make it deep in the tourney. If I only wanted to barely cash I'd try to fold my way in. I want to come out of this situation with max chips and if I bust, so be it.

Re: $1+.10 UB, near bubble with AKs
 

There's t3500 in the pot and you have roughly t5500 in your stack. I lead for t2000 and pray he pushes. If he does, call. If he just calls, shove any turn.

--TFGoose

Re: $1+.10 UB, near bubble with AKs
 

I would push and you will get instant called:)

Re: $1+.10 UB, near bubble with AKs
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would push and you will get instant called:)

[/ QUOTE ]

We don't know this, a good part of villains range is afraid of this flop. I say lead for something like t2000 and hope he wants to play with you.

Re: $1+.10 UB, near bubble with AKs
 

With an M around 8, I probably would have pushed pre-flop.

Re: $1+.10 UB, near bubble with AKs
 

I'd bet 3/4 the size of the pot, this has several purposes:
a) If you go all in you're only going to get called by a better hand.
b) This will define you're hand. If he comes over the top you've got a decision to make based on how he's been playing in the past. LAG, instacall... Supertight, he's probably got you beat... a lot of players will put you all in here w/aT, AQ etc... at this stage of the tourney.
c)If he calls he's likely got a drawing hand, Ax, or slowplaying a monster, in which case he'll tell you. You have to bet this on the turn as well.

Re: $1+.10 UB, near bubble with AKs
 

if hes aggro check shove. if loose passive bet 1500.

Re: $1+.10 UB, near bubble with AKs
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet 3/4 the size of the pot, this has several purposes:
a) If you go all in you're only going to get called by a better hand.
b) This will define you're hand. If he comes over the top you've got a decision to make based on how he's been playing in the past. LAG, instacall... Supertight, he's probably got you beat... a lot of players will put you all in here w/aT, AQ etc... at this stage of the tourney.
c)If he calls he's likely got a drawing hand, Ax, or slowplaying a monster, in which case he'll tell you. You have to bet this on the turn as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense, but how exactly does B) not contradict A)? If villain is willing to push with AT or AQ, would he not call your push with those hands as well? I'm not advocating a flop push either, but for different reasons than this.

It's very likely we have the best hand here, and I don't think the stacks involved give you any way of releasing this hand. Sure, villain might have gotten lucky and flopped two pair or a set, but if that's the case you're just going to have to pay him off. If you push, you'll sometimes get called by weaker hands, but many of them fold. If you bet smaller, you get called by weaker hands more often than if you push, and sometimes you even get put all-in (which is a good thing since pot odds alone dictate a call, and you still often have the best hand).

Of course we're in trouble if villain flopped big, but he's going to have to show it to me in this spot.

--TFGoose

Re: $1+.10 UB, near bubble with AKs
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet 3/4 the size of the pot, this has several purposes:
a) If you go all in you're only going to get called by a better hand.
b) This will define you're hand. If he comes over the top you've got a decision to make based on how he's been playing in the past. LAG, instacall... Supertight, he's probably got you beat... a lot of players will put you all in here w/aT, AQ etc... at this stage of the tourney.
c)If he calls he's likely got a drawing hand, Ax, or slowplaying a monster, in which case he'll tell you. You have to bet this on the turn as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude.. we are never folding this hand. A9 or AJ are posibilities, but whatever.. if he has that, nice hand to him. Donks like to play hands containing an ace, and it's way more likely that he's gonna pay us off with that.

And your assumptions that no better hand will call is just wrong IMO. Stacks are very shallow, this is a war, and I doubt villain is ever folding any hand containing an ace. Our hand is very strong at this point.

You are looking at this from a wrong angle. Our job is to choose a line that gets the most money in the pot, whatever villain has.

Re: $1+.10 UB, near bubble with AKs
 

With 13bbs to start with,, I would raise 4bb. WHen called, the pot is about 10bb, we have 10bb, and push 100% of the time. Less things can go wrong. Any flop is looking scary to a caller when played like this, unless he hits v big.

I think that regardless of how you play it, you are seeing the river, and betting that bit more might just get him off a five hand outer to beat you.