Another Deep @ Bellagio 25/50 hand
 

I have been playing my normal tight agressive game. Villan here is a solid regular who seems to live
at this place. Earlier on I doubled him up with my nut straight vs his rivered boat. This session I have 3bet him maybe 9 to 10 times. Hes 4bet me twice, called once, folded rest.
So in this hand wouldnt suprise me if hes playing back at me loose. I have never seen him overbet to the extent like this before...

Hero (27k)
Villan (Covers)

Action:
Two folds, Villan makes it $200, Hero makes it $650 with two black aces, 5 folds.

Flop ($1300)
8d 8c 8h

Villan tells me he has the eight and to be careful. (Dont know what to make of it, so I ignored it)
Villan checks, Hero bets 1050, Villan ponders for one or two seconds then calls.

Turn 7h ($4700)
Villan checks, Hero bets $2800, Villan calls.(small bet I know)

River 2s ($10,300)
Vilan pushes all in for 22k more, Hero ..?


Not great at reading people, but he looked a little nervous. Could be a reverse tell, so I ignored it. Since I have never seen him overbet like this, I had trouble here.

Re: Another Deep @ Bellagio 25/50 hand
 

sick hand, i get the feeling he has the eight though and it just trying to [censored] with your head on the flop, because the river would be one sick bluff that i don't think anyone would actually pull off for 2x pot, live.

Re: Another Deep @ Bellagio 25/50 hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Villan here is a solid regular who seems to live
at this place.

[/ QUOTE ]
Brad Booth?

Re: Another Deep @ Bellagio 25/50 hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
sick hand, i get the feeling he has the eight though and it just trying to [censored] with your head on the flop, because the river would be one sick bluff that i don't think anyone would actually pull off for 2x pot, live.

[/ QUOTE ]

I pretty much agree with this...I just would have a CRAZY HARD time folding though.

Re: Another Deep @ Bellagio 25/50 hand
 

This hand is geigh. I don't see why he cant show up with an 8 here, some 87 type hand. I think if he is bluffing he does not tell you he has the eight. Sick hand but I think I fold the river as it looks like you have KK or AA and I do not think his plan is to try and move you off an overpair.

I would call in the moment though. However in retrospect I think he has it.

Also, you guys would be surprised how honest people are at the poker table when they talk during a hand. (they obv lie afterwards)

Re: Another Deep @ Bellagio 25/50 hand
 

If he doesn't have an 8, what hand do you put him on? Complete bluff? Maybe KK?

Re: Another Deep @ Bellagio 25/50 hand
 

If he doesnt have an 8, he could have 1010+, but I dont see him realzing he is no good and then trying to bluff you with some sort of I have an 8 reverse tell. I mean it should be obvious you have at least KK. Who the hell would try to move someone off KK here?

Re: Another Deep @ Bellagio 25/50 hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he doesnt have an 8, he could have 1010+, but I dont see him realzing he is no good and then trying to bluff you with some sort of I have an 8 reverse tell. I mean it should be obvious you have at least KK. Who the hell would try to move someone off KK here?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I was getting at.

Also, why wouldn't he check raise you all in here, probably forcing you to call after your river bet rather than just open shoving?

Re: Another Deep @ Bellagio 25/50 hand
 

don't post here much but this is a really sick live hand...

FWIW if your going to bet the turn, I like a bigger turn bet. I think it really narrows down your hand to the villain with your turn bet, since it's one of those I have a hand that's very strong but not the nuts and not going to check since it has so much value etc.. basically saying your unsure of your hand and hesistant possibly leading talking yourself into a mistake. A bigger turn bet would've also set the tone that you are willing to play for stacks, and if villain still commits like this on the river, makes your decision a bit easier.

LIVE players would not make a bet like this without the case 8 from my exp. on a river bet like this but the problem is I think villain reads you for exactly what you hold, which makes this hard to call even if it's a bluff.

This deep on a board where there are a lot of hands a tough villain could have the case card, a check on the turn for pot control would've been a better play imo. Say something like "oh you have an 8? I check" and open the doors for him to make a bluff or value bet a weaker hand into you.

Given the basic info you gave I would fold, and importantly NOT show him or anyone at the table that I folded AA. The only thing that bugs me is the his speech on the flop, usually that's a hand like JJ-KK that's saying that [censored] to hopefully slow you down a bit and get to showdown cheap, but if villain has been getting 3bet by you a lot I think he would've 4bet JJ+ which makes it seem more like what it is, he's hoping you hold a big hand and will pay off.

Re: Another Deep @ Bellagio 25/50 hand
 

I think two distinctions must be made.
#1 When he talks about his had does he tell the truth.....He really does have the "8". or does he lie....he doesn't have it.

#2 Is he the type of player, who when he has the nuts, will bet a smaller amount that will be called a high percentage of the time....OR bet a large amount that will apear like a steal to entice a call.