Check-raise bluff on the river
 

Villain is a good player. Earlier in the session, he twice bet 40-50% of the pot on the river with the nuts or close to it and both times I called. After the second time he typed in the chat box "It seems that I have found the right amount".


Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero calls, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($8, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $8</font>, CO calls, 2 folds.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($24, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $24</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $58</font>, Hero calls.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($140, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $69</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $319.2</font>


Comments ?

Re: Check-raise bluff on the river
 

Villain has 300$, I have him covered

Re: Check-raise bluff on the river
 

Why bother risking another $230 here? Call, you might win anyways.

Re: Check-raise bluff on the river
 

Though I suppose he has a set of jacks or - if he's a tricky opponent - raised the turn when his wrap came, and hits a straight himself on the river. It's possible, but a set of jacks is ofc more likely.

Re: Check-raise bluff on the river
 

The thing is I am quite sure I am beaten, either by AJ or JJ, or else by a straight (he could have raised on turn with TQK, especially if they are suited). I know that if he does not have the nuts or very close to it, I have good folding equity.

My main concern is the importance of the read, and the level of thinking I should use. He twice bet half-pot on the river with the nuts. So I should fold here. BUT he knows I know that he bets half pot on the river with monsters, because he made a comment about it a few minutes earlier. So he could be imitating his previous plays. I do not think he is tricky enough to anticipate my thinking and betting this way with the nuts in order to make me think it is a bluff because I know his betting patterns.

So there are two possibilities :
- he may be simply betting his hand the way he always does with the nuts.
- he may be using the read he knows I have to bluff.

As I am writing this, it seems that maybe calling was a better option actually. This way I can be sure of seeing his hand, and so to have a very valuable read on his level of thinking.

++

Re: Check-raise bluff on the river
 

Or he may realise you are getting fed up with him and is betting the same on the river with AJ or a set and planning on calling you. This is not the best spot for a c/r bluff given that he either beats your A9 and will call anyway or was bluffing and will fold. Call is def much better.

Re: Check-raise bluff on the river
 

You don't think AJ or a set could fold here?

Re: Check-raise bluff on the river
 

It's somewhat unlikely that he called the flop with the kind of cards that could have made a decent enough straight draw on the turn to warrant a semi-bluff raise. However, a lot of the made hands on the turn may not value bet this river. Does top two or a set really bet half the pot here?

If he did make some sort of random straight, as seems likely, I think this bluff is marginal at best, depending on how much of a nit he is at folding 89/Q9.

Metagame wise it's always nice to pull big checkraises on the river, since he'll be afraid to valuebet medium hands, and if you're called, he'll be more likely to think you're full of it and call down.

Re: Check-raise bluff on the river
 

From what your describing- I like this play against this opponent. Pretty ballsy- I have done this a few times and it seems to work more than it doesn't. I usually raise the turn though and bet the river on a bluff. Check raising river is definately tricky.

Are you going to get caught occasionally with someone having a set? Yes- but I think its a +EV play when you make a read like this.

Re: Check-raise bluff on the river
 

I think a really weak tight player might fold a set or aces up here. I wouldn't.