Pirateboy\'s NCAAF Conquest - Week 7
 

Short list so far, with writeups, I SWEAR, tomorrow.

Utah (-4) @ Wyoming

Arizona (-4) @ Stanford

And my first ever 2 unit bet:

Missouri (-2.5) @ Texas A&M

YTD: 47-35-2 +9 units

Re: Pirateboy\'s NCAAF Conquest - Week 7
 

Utah (-4) @ Wyoming

So Utah's 36-3 loss to Boise State is still burnt into my mind even after I made my bet. I don't know what happened to the Utes that day, but I have a gut feeling it was an aberration. Utah followed that dismal effort with a good one against TCU.

Against the 2 teams that are clearly superior to Utah, the Utes were outgained by wide margins in both. In the same vein, they largely outgained the inferior opponents they played. Utah outgained TCU by 44 yards, and those 2 teams were evenly matched. Wyoming is a decent team, better than San Diego State but not as good as TCU.

Wyoming has had so many close losses this season, and this Saturday, they will either: A) Come out and finally win one or B) Come out with no emotion and broken confidence. Obviously, I'm expecting B to happen.

Wyoming has been quite confusing. They outgained Syracuse and New Mexico by a ton, but in neither game did they outscore their opponents as would be expected from the yardage and turnover totals. I'm not sold on Karsten Sween yet, though he is capable. Utah's defense isn't as good as Boise's, but its one of the best the Cowboys will see all season. Utah's offense looked pretty solid last week against a good TCU D.

I truly believe the Cowboys' close losses will have an effect on their emotions and Utah will waltz into Laramie and pound them pretty good.

And this was terrible analysis.

Re: Pirateboy\'s NCAAF Conquest - Week 7
 

Added:

Boise State (-26') -110 @ New Mexico St

New Mexico (-3) -110 @ UNLV

Ohio State (-14) -107 @ Michigan State

Missouri (-1.5) +100 @ Texas A&M

S. Florida (-3.5) -102 @ N. Carolina

S. Florida (-3) -110 @ N. Carolina

Minnesota @ Wisconsin (-8) -110

Kentucky (+26) -110 @ LSU

Missouri @ Texas A&M O50 -110

Vanderbilt @ Georgia U38 -110

Re: Pirateboy\'s NCAAF Conquest - Week 7
 

Not crazy about Kentucky +26. They are RAVAGED by injuries, only have 1 healthy defensive tackle for this game (other guys will be shifted around obv.), star RB Rafael Little out as well, although they have considerably more depth at RB than DT...Kentucky defense is awful to begin with...LSU should be pissed off and as MT2R says they are a cripple-shooter.

I could see them covering, but I don't think the play has much value. Could've had them +28 on Sunday.

Re: Pirateboy\'s NCAAF Conquest - Week 7
 

Added:

UCLA @ Oregon O52 -107

Arizona @ Stanford U38 -110

Both Arizona's and Stanford's offense stink ... like whoa. I mean, just terrible. Arizona's defense is actually pretty good and they should be able to hold Stanford to 7 points or a shutout. Arizona's offense is nowhere near capable enough of taking advantage of a bad Stanford defense. Tuitama was benched last week, and Austin looked a little better. Still, if the Wildcats hold Stanford to 7, I can't see Arizona scoring the 32 to make the OVER good.

My prediction is: Arizona 24-7, which gives us a TD leeway.

Re: Pirateboy\'s NCAAF Conquest - Week 7
 

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New Mexico (-3) -110 @ UNLV



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UNLV has to be one of the worst teams in the country right now. In their 4 D-1A games, they've played 1 close, against Iowa State. Since that game, they've been BLOWN OUT by Hawaii, Nevada, and Colorado State. New Mexico isn't any kind of world beater, but they've at least won some nice games and played a little tougher.

New Mexico did get lit up by USAFA's run game, but UNLV can't run the ball worth a crap anyway. UNLV relies on the pass to get things done on offense, but they have bad QBs. The Rebels have 2 QBs who have decent completion percentage numbers, but they throw picks more than TDs.

The Lobos have a balanced offense, but its not a good offense. They can win by running (UTEP) or by throwing (New Mex St). UNLV's defense is pathetic, allowing 390+ yards per game. Sure, the Lobos stink on D, too, but not 390+ ypg type stink.

Prediction: New Mexico 20, UNLV 13

Re: Pirateboy\'s NCAAF Conquest - Week 7
 

Maryland (-3) -105 @ Virginia
Toledo @ Kent State O47' -110