NFL Week 3....(YTD: 34-27-1, +9 ujnits)
 

Please note that I have not factored juice into my units won/lost. Obviously this would affect my total a bit. All lines are from sportsbook at the time of this post.
Jets +5.5 at Buffalo, o/u 34.5
Jets are my surprise team this year, so I'll stick by them. I see this as a low scoring game that the Jets will cover even if they lose. Buffalo shouldn't be able to score more than 14 points here imo.Jets +5.5(3 units), under 34.5(1 unit)

Cincy +2 at Pit, o/u 42
Tough call, but I simply think Cincy is the better team. They win this one outright imo, sending Steelers fans into worry. Cincy +2(1 unit), under 42(1 unit)

Jacksonville +7 at Indy, o/u 44
Seven points is way too much here. Jacksonville showed a lot on MNF, although it was at home. Their D will not let the Colts rush the ball at all, making them very one dimensional. I expect a lower scoring affair, and I'll go ahead and predict that Jacksonville wins outright. Jacksonville +7(8 units), under 44(2 units)

Tenn +10.5 at Miami, o/u 36.5
Miami simply isn't good enough to be laying double digit points. Tenn +10.5(55 units), under 36.5(1 unit)

Wash -4 at Hous, o/u 37.5
Pains me to say this, but Washington shouldn't be laying points on the road here. Hous +4( 1unit), under 37.5(1 unit)

Chi -3 at Minn, o/u 34
Been on the Minnesota bandwagon all year. BTW, what the hell kind of schedule is it to open open against 3/4 of last year's final 4 NFC playoff teams? No way Minnesota should be a home dog to any team in the entire league...they're so underrated its funny. Jacksonville was too, but maybe not after Monday. Minn +3(5 units), over 34(1 unit)

Car -3 at TB, o/u 34.5
Meh...flip a coin. When in doubt, I'll go with the home team getting points. They both seemed very good last year; They've both been big disappointments this year. As I said, I'll go with the home team getting points. TB +3(1 unit), under 34.5(1 unit)

GB +6.5 at Det, o/u 39
I don't think Detroit is good enough to blow anyone out, so I'll take the points here. GB +6.5(1 unit), under 39(1 unit)

Balt -7 at Cle, o/u 33
Another game I'm rather "coin flippish" about. I went against the Ravens last week and it cost me...not this week. Balt -7(1 unit), over 33(1 unit)

Stl +4.5 at Ariz, o/u 45
St Louis sucks on the road. I was all over SF last week. This line is definitely more fair, but I'll still take Arizona.Ariz -4.5(1 unit), under 45(1 unit)

NYG +4 at Sea, o/u 44.5
Tough game to pick. I think the line should be 3, so I'll take the extra point. NYG +4(1 unit), under 44.5(1 unit)

Philly -6 at SF, o/u 41.5
Philly is one of the more overrated teams in the league. They're simply not a good team, as evidenced by them giving away a game last week. Why are they a TD road favorite? I think this game should be pick 'em. SF +6(5 units), over 41.5(2 units)

Den +6.5 at NE, o/u 39.5
Denver has just looked so bad its tough to go with them. NE -6.5(1 unit), under 39.5(1 unit)

Atl -3 at NO, o/u 42
I'm going to hold off on the Monday night game for now....will pick later in the week

Re: NFL Week 3....(YTD: 34-27-1, +9 ujnits)
 

Calling an upset in Indy, impressive. Best of luck on the week, Assani.

Re: NFL Week 3....(YTD: 34-27-1, +9 ujnits)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tenn +10.5(55 units)

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a typo right

edit: posting this so the nits dont jump on you one way or another after the game ends.

Re: NFL Week 3....(YTD: 34-27-1, +9 ujnits)
 

I think Jacksonville will run on Indy, but I'm concerned about the effect of going on the road with a short week after the Monday night home game.

[ QUOTE ]
Philly is one of the more overrated teams in the league. They're simply not a good team, as evidenced by them giving away a game last week. Why are they a TD road favorite? I think this game should be pick 'em.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're getting a little ridiculous here. A lot of things, likely including Eagles injuries, had to bounce the Giants' way for them to win that game last week. They may have outcoached Philly down the stretch as well, which isn't something I would expect to see happen to the Eagles that often. Even with all that did happen, I think I could take a single decision back, when Westbrook decided to launch himself over a pile to get a few extra not important enough at the time yards and fumbled as he was coming down on his head, and Eagles win the game. My point? They're definitely a good team IMO, but they do have some injuries to overcome. If this game was pick 'em, the sportsbooks would probably shut down from too much traffic due to all the Eagles money coming in.

If you think it ought to be pick em though, I'd think you should put some units on a SF money line.

Re: NFL Week 3....(YTD: 34-27-1, +9 ujnits)
 

just fyi, losing the add'tl 2.7 in units would drop your win total from 9 to 6.3 units, a 30% reduction which is definitely more than 'a bit,' at least in my mind. Feel free to use that as an approximation for the juice, or not.

Like the Jax pick as well.

Re: NFL Week 3....(YTD: 34-27-1, +9 ujnits)
 

I think I like Carolina by a decent margin this week. While both teams have underachieved, Carolina should be 1-1 while Tampa has completely fallen off the map with only 3 points this year. Course I also can't see a team I still expect to contend this year start off 0-3.

Re: NFL Week 3....(YTD: 34-27-1, +9 ujnits)
 

For what its worth, Naj, it was 2.8 units extra lost in juice for last week only at -110 lines across the board, 1.8 units extra lost in juice for last week only. It would be slightly more for both weeks, because I just ran the numbers for last week.

But regardless, its been noted, Assani noted it in his post, and its my understanding he was going to start tracking it going forward.

Assani if you ended up putting $1 units on this at Pinnacle or etc, it might be just as easy to take a screenshot of your pending bets page and throw that up on ImageShack - save you a good bit of typing [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] and would automatically show the units and cost of each line.

Re: NFL Week 3....(YTD: 34-27-1, +9 ujnits)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tenn +10.5(55 units),

[/ QUOTE ]

This must be a typo, no?

Re: NFL Week 3....(YTD: 34-27-1, +9 ujnits)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Calling an upset in Indy, impressive. Best of luck on the week, Assani.

[/ QUOTE ]

be even more impressive if u were betting the ML.

I love because Phili lost late to the Giants they suck yet...Minni barely beat either Car or Wash...both two average teams in their current state..and yet they should be favorites over any team at home.

Minn is no where near as good as you seem to believe and Phili is no where near as bad.

Re: NFL Week 3....(YTD: 34-27-1, +9 ujnits)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tenn +10.5(55 units)

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a typo right

edit: posting this so the nits dont jump on you one way or another after the game ends.

[/ QUOTE ]Eh, mistakes happen. I'm man enough to stick with my mistakes and take responsibility....55 units it is!