WSOP ME Day 1 Small Pair
 

Later day 1. I have around T30000 and open raise to t550 from hijack with red Fives. Blinds are 100/200/25. Small blind, Captain Tom, calls. He has around T30000 also. I haven't played with him in a number of years, I didn't even recognize him. His play has changed quite a bit since I last played with him. He has gotten very passive, he checks and calls a lot, but he still appears to have a fair degree of larcency.

Flop comes 2s 6s 8h

He checks and I bet t800. He calls.

Turn 2s 6s 8h 2d (Pot around 3100 now)

He checks and I bet around t2000 and he promptly calls.

River 2s 6s 8h 2d Qs.

He bets t3500. What's my best play?

Comments appreciated.

Bruce

Re: WSOP ME Day 1 Small Pair
 

I don't know villian, and I don't really know squat, but unless he is very capable of bluffing, I don't see how you can call. If you are thinking of raising, what would a passive calling station fold here?

Re: WSOP ME Day 1 Small Pair
 

One more thought, wouldn't checking the turn for pot control be a good idea here? You don't really have a monster.

Re: WSOP ME Day 1 Small Pair
 

I like a bigger preflop raise, but mostly because I'm pretty horrible at deep-stacked poker. But let me give this a shot.

Villain is a passive player who rarely bets strength. He called PF. He called the flop. He called the turn. Now he bets out. You beat only a bluff. Ummm, fold?

Re: WSOP ME Day 1 Small Pair
 

I'm checking the turn here and trying to get to showdown. Maybe calling a reasonable river bet depending what comes.

as played you can go two ways. You can fold river. What are you beating here?
Or, put in a healthy raise if this feels like he just put out a blocking bet. Now he has to fear many many hands from you.

70% fold, 30 % raise, 0% call.

Re: WSOP ME Day 1 Small Pair
 

Assuming you were played back at in the SB with a fairly wide range here, what exactly are you beating at showdown?

I don't think you're ahead here, and his blocking bet on river feels like a medium strength hand trying to get value/control the showdown cost. I don't see the virtue of a raise on a risk/reward basis.

Re: WSOP ME Day 1 Small Pair
 

Calling the river is out of the question. A raise, however, is interesting. I don't think he has a monster, looks like a medium pair (77,99,TT). I don't see how he could have a queen. There's just not many hands he can call a raise with on the river.

Also, I pretty much always check behind on the turn.

Re: WSOP ME Day 1 Small Pair
 

I'm probably letting this go with thought that he is holding the 8 of spades and possibly another spade as well. There are simply too many cards he could hold that beat you.

You may not be prepared to risk another 10% of your stack here, and your opponent may know that you know this. So there is probably at least some chance that he is bluffing.

If you think he is bluffing then you have to randomize a decision to either call or fold (preferably in advance of the river card so your choice is truly random and not biased).

Regardless, I also make a mental note to play a stronger hand similarly if the situation happens to arise in the future.

Re: WSOP ME Day 1 Small Pair
 

you're prolly beat; fold.

other hand, chance of bluff on the scare card (flush, high card), is about 20-25%. third hand, you lose to any 8, any queen any 2, any 2 spades, you missed your set. fold.

yep, fold.