25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
 

Or I guess really I'm asking how much should I raise here, because as that Sklansky/Miller book tells us, the idea isn't to get called always, but to maximize over the long haul.

Anyway, Villain is 25/4/0.9 over 92 hands, and the main thing I knew about him was that he didn't suck. Or he didn't suck much compared to me, in any case.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

BB ($5)
UTG ($34.45)
UTG+1 ($24.05)
MP1 ($46.25)
MP2 ($28.85)
MP3 ($5.20)
CO ($32.40)
Hero ($36.70)
SB ($22.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Hero calls $0.25, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.6</font>, SB calls $0.60, BB folds, UTG folds.

<font color="#0000FF">Well, crap. So much for that.</font>

Turn: ($2.20) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

<font color="#0000FF">At this point, I'm planning to call a small bet on the river and fold to anything substantial. I haven't exactly worked out the bet range that I'll call, but that's my plan.</font>

River: ($2.20) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.25 . . .</font>


Now I'm looking to felt it if I can (doubtful), but this does bring us to my original question.

Re: 25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
 

2.5

Re: 25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
 

I don't like your flop bet. Slowplaying is so endemic at 25NL that I wouldn't be surprised to see a 7 more than 50% of the time here.

The river's tough. He's obviously calling anything if he holds an ace, so we shouldn't worry about that. I don't think he'll call any reasonable bet with anything but a 7, so that's the case we should size our bet for. I'd say $2. It doesn't look like a sucker bet, and it might just be big enough to be a bluff.

Re: 25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like your flop bet. Slowplaying is so endemic at 25NL that I wouldn't be surprised to see a 7 more than 50% of the time here.

[/ QUOTE ]

And thus if that's all they're calling with, the bet is fine [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].

You've prompted me to figure out how often a 7 is out there, based on 6 cards I'm up against (I'm going to have to make them random).

I'll be back.

Re: 25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like your flop bet. Slowplaying is so endemic at 25NL that I wouldn't be surprised to see a 7 more than 50% of the time here.

[/ QUOTE ]

And thus if that's all they're calling with, the bet is fine [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].

You've prompted me to figure out how often a 7 is out there, based on 6 cards I'm up against (I'm going to have to make them random).

I'll be back.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, trip 7's are out there about 27 percent of the time, based on random hands, unless i did the math wrong.

Re: 25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
 

2-3 or poosh.

Re: 25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, trip 7's are out there about 27 percent of the time, based on random hands, unless i did the math wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to my calcs it's only about 24% but no big difference. And this includes quad 7's or two villains holding a 7 each.

Calculated this way :
1 - (45c6 / 47c6) = 24.1%

The same calculation for a King being out there (if the hands were random):
1 - (44c6 / 47c6) = 34.3%

And last but not least, either a King or a 7 being out there:
1 - (42c6 / 47c6) = 51.1%

Considering that villains love to stick around with King high more often than 9 high, the real percentage might be slightly higher.
Also, these numbers do not include the times you're behind pocket pairs or better Aces.

Disclaimer: Talking purely about flop situation here

*Edit: Wrong calcs - corrected

Re: 25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
 

Strongly consider raising preflop. You likely drive out the blinds, and your flop continuation bet becomes a very scary for anyone still hanging around. You can limp and play for the flush but it seems a waste with a good hand on the button.

As played, this is still a good flop to bet when checked to: dry and paired, so it's less likely anyone hit. I would make a bigger bet, 3/4-to-full, so you can be confident you're beat when called.

River, the board is painfully obvious. You're not getting more than $2-3 more out of anything you beat, unless villain reads you for a bluff.

Re: 25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Hero calls $0.25, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I raise here, to isolate the preflop limper and to give the blinds a reason to fold. If its heads-up to the flop I try to take it down right there with a cont. bet.

[ QUOTE ]

Flop: ($1) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.6</font>, SB calls $0.60, BB folds, UTG folds.


[/ QUOTE ]

As played, I bet more, pot-size ($1)

[ QUOTE ]

Turn: ($2.20) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good check imo, keep the pot small with TPTK and you might induce a King to bet the river.

[ QUOTE ]

River: ($2.20) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.25 . . .</font>


[/ QUOTE ]

I would raise to $2-2.5. Perhaps he will fold a king, perhaps he thinks you're full of it.
Though you must remember that if you push in this situation you only need one idiot in 20 (not an exact number, but an indication. I don't feel much for the math after a hard days work) that will call you to make it profitable.

Re: 25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
 

Raise Preflop 1.25
CBet 3/4 Pot
Bet Turn (Somewhat dependant on caller/caller position)
Bet River

That sad little 2 dollar pot is a travesty.

As played-
Villian has 7, K, A, or air.

If he had the 7, he probably would have bet turn. If he had an Ace, he probably would have bet turn (as you should have) I'd guess he has a K. Say 70%K, 10%7, 10%A, 10%Air

Now what he does with those cards depends on what you bet, but if I had to guesstimate:

[edit- removed wrong numbers]

I would guess that the obvious 2 dollar bet gets the best return.

[edit 2] nope, reran numbers, a push is best, anything less is worth cents long-run.

[edit 3] my guesstimate:
http://www.lightlink.com/jackson/images/odds.jpg