nfl futures, Eagles under 8.5 wins this season?
 

please tell me if I'm missing something in my logic.

I really like this bet, it's +114 for the under on pinnacle.
The schedule for phillie doesn't look promising for them this year, both with a tough division and an extremely tough schedule with only 5 games against teams that were under .500 last year. I really like mcnabb, but is there anybody around him on offense other than westbrook to make some plays?

They feel like a huge favorite to me to be .500 or worse this year, am I overlooking something?

Re: nfl futures, Eagles under 8.5 wins this season?
 

andy reid is a great coach and mcnabb has a ton to prove. This team was in the SB 2 years ago and was a favorite going into last year. Have they really lost all that much since then or did they merely have a off year (thanks to T.O.)?

Not saying i would take the over, but i certainly wouldn't be to eager to jump all over the under either. gl

Re: nfl futures, Eagles under 8.5 wins this season?
 

You do realize that their poor performance was heavily influenced by the absence of one of the best QB's in the league, right?

Re: nfl futures, Eagles under 8.5 wins this season?
 

To handicap season win totals you have to start in the division. All the NFC East teams are tough but I don't see any clear cut favorite there. The home team would be favored no matter which two of them were playing. Eagles should win 2-4 games here. Let's use 3 for this.

The rest of the schedule:
Games they should win...@ Houston, @ S.F., Green Bay, @ New Orleans, Tenn

Games they should lose...@ Indy, Carolina

Tossups...@ Tampa, Jacksonville, Atlanta

That's 8-5-3 and they will be favored over Jax & Atl at home. I'd lean toward the over but I don't see enough edge to bet it myself.

Re: nfl futures, Eagles under 8.5 wins this season?
 

[ QUOTE ]
To handicap season win totals you have to start in the division. All the NFC East teams are tough but I don't see any clear cut favorite there. The home team would be favored no matter which two of them were playing. Eagles should win 2-4 games here. Let's use 3 for this.

The rest of the schedule:
Games they should win...@ Houston, @ S.F., Green Bay, @ New Orleans, Tenn

Games they should lose...@ Indy, Carolina

Tossups...@ Tampa, Jacksonville, Atlanta

That's 8-5-3 and they will be favored over Jax & Atl at home. I'd lean toward the over but I don't see enough edge to bet it myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent analysis, imo.

natedogg

Re: nfl futures, Eagles under 8.5 wins this season?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To handicap season win totals you have to start in the division. All the NFC East teams are tough but I don't see any clear cut favorite there. The home team would be favored no matter which two of them were playing. Eagles should win 2-4 games here. Let's use 3 for this.

The rest of the schedule:
Games they should win...@ Houston, @ S.F., Green Bay, @ New Orleans, Tenn

Games they should lose...@ Indy, Carolina

Tossups...@ Tampa, Jacksonville, Atlanta

That's 8-5-3 and they will be favored over Jax & Atl at home. I'd lean toward the over but I don't see enough edge to bet it myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent analysis, imo.

natedogg

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it is a mistake to assign 1 win for every game they "should win" and 0 for games they should lose. if you really want to do a sophisticated analysis, you should assign a probability between 0 and 1 for each game.

Re: nfl futures, Eagles under 8.5 wins this season?
 

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You do realize that their poor performance was heavily influenced by the absence of one of the best QB's in the league, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm.... Wasn't their W/L very simlar with their second and third string quarterbacks in their offense when McNabb was out a few years ago...

McNabb = way overrated

Re: nfl futures, Eagles under 8.5 wins this season?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You do realize that their poor performance was heavily influenced by the absence of one of the best QB's in the league, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm.... Wasn't their W/L very simlar with their second and third string quarterbacks in their offense when McNabb was out a few years ago...

McNabb = way overrated

[/ QUOTE ]

Their defense was better back then, and they had a better running game with the three-headed monster (Staley, Westbrook, Buckhalter).

McNabb is somewhat overrated, but I don't think your example shows why.

Re: nfl futures, Eagles under 8.5 wins this season?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You do realize that their poor performance was heavily influenced by the absence of one of the best QB's in the league, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm.... Wasn't their W/L very simlar with their second and third string quarterbacks in their offense when McNabb was out a few years ago...

McNabb = way overrated

[/ QUOTE ]

2004....64% 3875yds 31TD 8INT. Only QB to ever throw 30+ TDs and less than 10 INT in a season. Any every other season hes been in the league hes had just about the worst starting WRs in the league.


OP: I would pay some attention to how the Todd Pinkston injury plays out. Every time he praticed in training camp his knee got very sore and inflamed. He may not even play this season. There is a chance they will make a run at Ashely Lelie from Denver if he can't go. Pinkston sucks but he has good speed and can stretch the field (he led the league in YPC in 2004) which helps open things up for Westbrook.

Re: nfl futures, Eagles under 8.5 wins this season?
 

I'll be shocked if the Eagles don't finish dead last in their division.