Preakness Picks
 

I'm off to the track. So I'll start off with my picks.

Y-T-D: Crushed in the Derby

Looking for my Preakness comeback:

2 units on Like Now in a W/S Love that speed and that rail position.
2 units on SweetNorthernSaint to win, Best value out of the three big ones.

My exotics are a combination of Barbaro & Brother Derek with a bunch of other contenders and my Sluss buys dinner crazyass superfecta: 1753

My best longshot in the early races is Our Peak in the Sir Barton. That horse has already made me some cash this year and I love it.

Re: Preakness Picks
 

I need to do some kind of research, but from what I can tell, the % in the last 10 years or so of horses coming out of the Derby and running in the money at the Preakness are very high... Therefore, I am going to be doing some rather large straight trifectas with Barbaro, Brother Derek, and Sweetnorthernsaint... I will toss a savor ticket in there with those 3, over those 3, over all...just in case some bomber picks up the pieces for show... I will get back to everyone if I get the specifics on horses in the money at the Preakness following a run for the roses...

Re: Preakness Picks
 

In the last 10 years, only 1 horse(Red Bullet-2000) has won the Preakness without being in the Derby. A wise handicapper even made a statement to me once: "If the fresh horses in the Preakness were any good, they would have been entered in the Derby..."

Re: Preakness Picks
 

I'm risking a total of $150 on this race. I was terrible in the Derby, putting lots of exposure on AP Warrior, so take this with a grain of salt. Here goes:

$53 exacta box ($106 total bet) on Barbaro and Bro Derek

$2 trifecta on Barb(1), Bernardini(2), and Derek(3)

$2 trifecta on Barb(1), Derek(2), and Bernardini(3)

$5 trifecta on Barb(1), Derek(2), and Diabolical(3)

$25 on Diabolical to show

$10 exacta/perfecta on Barbaro(1), and Diabolical(2)


Noticeably absent in all this is Sweetnorthernsaint. I think he's the trendy pick, and he didn't really impress me in the Derby. He'll get more and more expensive as the day goes on, as he'll be a local betting favorite.

If Bro Derek and Barbaro come in 1st and 2nd, and/or Diabolical (a longshot but good value in my opinion) finishes in the top 3, my day is well more than paid for, and maybe I'll get lucky on one of those trifectas.

Horse betting is pure entertainment value for me. I'm fine losing everything I risk, so any winning is pure gravy. Anyone who bets horse racing with money that they can't really afford to lose, or who thinks horse betting is anything other than badly -EV is either stupid or in serious denial. That said, it's much more fun to watch the race if you have some action on it.

Good luck to all and enjoy the race.

Re: Preakness Picks
 

I pick Barbaro to drown them.
No bets (no value).

bc

Re: Preakness Picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
I pick Barbaro to drown them.
No bets (no value).
bc

[/ QUOTE ]

YTD: Like Now in Gotham, Lawyer Ron in Arkansas Derby, SNS across the board in Illinois.
KD - Barbaro to win, Barb/BlueCat exacta box [among others], Steppenwolfer to show. A nice day.

Barbaro heavy to win [online at +105, +100 and down to -117].
Like Now to show and in all exotics.
BroDerek/Barbaro and SNS/Barbaro exacta boxes.
Barbaro/Like Now and Barbaro/Bernardini exacta small.
Trifecta: Barbaro/BroDerek/SNS + LN small.
Super: Barbaro/ BroD + SNS box/ LN + Bern tiny.

Except for Barbaro to win, waiting until I see the horses to place the other bets.

Naj

Re: Preakness Picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I pick Barbaro to drown them.
No bets (no value).
bc

[/ QUOTE ]

YTD: Like Now in Gotham, Lawyer Ron in Arkansas Derby, SNS across the board in Illinois.
KD - Barbaro to win, Barb/BlueCat exacta box [among others], Steppenwolfer to show. A nice day.

Barbaro heavy to win [online at +105, +100 and down to -117].
Like Now to show and in all exotics.
BroDerek/Barbaro and SNS/Barbaro exacta boxes.
Barbaro/Like Now and Barbaro/Bernardini exacta small.
Trifecta: Barbaro/BroDerek/SNS + LN small.
Super: Barbaro/ BroD + SNS box/ LN + Bern tiny.

Except for Barbaro to win, waiting until I see the horses to place the other bets.

Naj

[/ QUOTE ]

HOLY CRAP BARBARO breaks through the gate

Re: Preakness Picks
 

BARBARO HURT HOLY CRAP TWICE

Re: Preakness Picks
 

I had Barbaro to NOT win the Triple Crown (must go Preakness). I hope this bet pays off still. He started the race, but didn't finish it, and I don't want the sportsbooks to not pay this off.

Re: Preakness Picks
 

Jesus H. All week long I was going to be on Bernardini, and at 12-1 those odds were higher than I thought he'd get; and then at the last minute I decided he could not win and stayed away. God dammit.