Ed Miller DVD hand?
 

This is from the Ed Miller DVD on "Protecting Your Hand," which is my favorite of the four.

No reads. I assume the players are typical mediocre-poor, since that seems to be the standard NPA assumption in the DVD.

Hero is button with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Preflop: Two limpers (L1 and L2), we raise, blinds fold, limpers call.
Flop (7.5 SB): K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
L1 bets, L2 raises, Hero ___?___

This is the only hand where I'm really having a lot of debate. I'm not sure if I agree with Ed's answer, though if he and I do disagree, he is a big favorite to be correct. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Thoughts?

Re: Ed Miller DVD hand
 

Although I picked up my copy this week (from London's High Stakes Bookstore on Great Ormond Street), I've only watched the hand reading section so far.

So, my actions here are based on my other reading -- mostly SSHE.

My action at this point would be to call. I just don't see either of the previous players having two clubs often enough for me to worry about it, though I'm not re-raising (as I normally would) just in case.

If another club falls, then I'm probably gone -- depending on how the betting goes, but at this point, with just two players in the pot I still believe there's a very good chance I have the best hand and the raiser is raising a draw. I'm putting him on ace-clubs and a rag.

Edit: on reflection, I'm guessing that Ed is suggesting we raise, because he thinks we have the best hand as well. Just call me Mr. Weak/Tight (or Mr. Pitiful.)

Re: Ed Miller DVD hand?
 

i like a call

Re: Ed Miller DVD hand?
 

Why not raise. The limpers could have hands like Kojak and Ax with one or two clubs. If the first limper has one smaller club, he might fold right away when there are two other raisers. I say raise when there's no good reason not to (saving bets or pots).

Oh, the second limper has either K, two pair, set or two clubs. Probably K, so the raise is good.

Re: Ed Miller DVD hand?
 

One could argue folding this flop if these players bet/raising range is very tight given a monotone flop. Meaning, they wouldn't raise a draw.

As the range expands, so do your options.

Usually, I'll wait to the turn. One of these guys will likely bet it. If the guy 3 bets behind, and his 3 bet range is pretty narrow, I can let it go then too.

I was in a hand the other night that was capped 4 ways preflop with AA. Flop came monotone, J high no real str8 draws, not my tone: player 'B' bet, there's a fold, 'C' raise to me on the button. I called.

Turn was a blank, B checks, C bets, I raise, they both call.

River killed me, but the nut flush (B) checked and we checked behind.

b

Re: Ed Miller DVD hand?
 

(I'm not posting Ed's answer yet, but I will soon.)

Re: Ed Miller DVD hand?
 

There are about 59 combos that give either guy a flush, set, or two pair and about 139 that give them Kx, or the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. If we assume that P1 will bet any of these combos we beat we should be good against him ~ 70% of the time. P2 would have to have one of the 44 combos that beat us > 75% of those times for folding to be right. (75% is obviously too high)

I say 3 bet for value, and to possibly drive out the original bettor if he has a hand like K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Having said that what do you do if a club hits and the guy bets? Getting 10:1 (and after having shown tramendous strength on the flop) do you think we're good >10% here? I know Ed's really against folding "good" hands when the pot is big but I'm not sure if this one is even close.

Re: Ed Miller DVD hand?
 

Ed's advice is to call. He basically thinks our hand is vulnerable and not that powerful, but too good to fold. He points out that we could fold if the raiser wouldn't raise with less than two pair.

I like 3betting, but I do see the argument for calling and waiting until the turn. Good analysis in this thread; pretty much everyone made sense, which is a real rarity. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Ed Miller DVD hand?
 

One problem with 3 betting the flop is your opponents range can be much wider as to what they are jamming with as compared to the turn. (unless they are predictable opponents, but that's been covered) So it can be tougher to figure out where exactly you're at in the hand at that point.

Hands on boards like this are much more defined on the turn.

If you wake up and are raised or 3 bet on the turn, it's a much easier laydown.

b

Re: Ed Miller DVD hand?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ed's advice is to call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well kinda. He said call based off the raiser. Real passive only raises 2pair+ -> he said go ahead and fold.

But against typical he said just call based off the whole vulnerable, not able to protect your hand theory that you should just call. I think it was just an exercise to determine situations when even AA can even be considered a vulnerable hand on a very bad flop. Overpair does not equal nuts.