33$*s NLTTRN: Annoyed villain takes bluffy line, but can I call?
 

Okay, so from the first hand onwards Ive been betting and raising the living daylight out of this guy. Raised all but one hand pf, followed up on flop and turn and he either folded or called with the worse hand.

Hes not exactly a great player, but not completely retarded imo. Way too passive and predictable.

Then this:




PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (2 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero (t1800)
Button (t1200)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Button calls t10, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t80</font>, Button calls t60.

Flop: (t160) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t120</font>, Button calls t120.

Turn: (t400) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t260</font>, Button calls t260.

River: (t920) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button thinks for 1 second and bets t740 (All-In)</font>


Pokerinstincts said ZOMG! BLUFF.

Rational thinking said: Hes not the kind of player who instashoves for value here without JJ or KK. He would be thinking a little while before value-shoving with anything but the nuts. That also includes monsters like KJ and a low set. He doesnt have the kind of gameplan to know "If this guy checks Im gonna shove cause a million worse hands will call me". So the obvious range left is a busted draw and some kind of frustrated double float with 4th pair that realizes it wont win a showdown.
Additionally, he had the perfect bluff-timing. Very short hesitation, then the shove.

Now, despite the fact that it makes perfect sense in MY mind. Is this maybe a little too much pseudo-science Im doing here? Can I ever take argumentation as the above to make a call like that in a 33$ HUsngs with an unknown?


what you guys say?

Re: 33$*s NLTTRN: Annoyed villain takes bluffy line, but can I call?
 

in my experience, if u have been raising and betting every spot you can, like you should imo. you often get them frustrated enough to push in there with a busted draw..it is a feel thing..sometimes you have to grid your teeth together and call. I often make these calls and im often right, for me an important factor is what will i have left if im wrong? against some players i still rate myself a favorite when im at a 3-1 chip disadvantage..so then you really only have to be right 50% of the time. On the other hand, if your edge is this big there will be better spots to wait for.

in my experience he either has A6, or he has KQ and had no idea how to play it and now shoves on the river cause hes happy to have sucked out.

p.s. Im a new poster but not a new player and im happy to join the 2+2 family [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 33$*s NLTTRN: Annoyed villain takes bluffy line, but can I call?
 

I'd call.

Re: 33$*s NLTTRN: Annoyed villain takes bluffy line, but can I call?
 

Eh, tough call. Really is a total feel thing and depends on the player. From what you've described there's a good chance he has a busted flush/straight draw. Really the only two hands I can see him having here are a missed draw, or 2 pair caught on the turn or river with a hand like j6 or k6.

I'd put him on k6 personally and fold unless I thought he was mega-tilting.

Re: 33$*s NLTTRN: Annoyed villain takes bluffy line, but can I call?
 

If you raise a lot, you have to call a lot. I call here. You are ahead a lot. If he sucked out and hit a king, so be it.