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-   -   Bankroll Management Question (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=554326)

jkpickett 11-25-2007 06:52 PM

Bankroll Management Question
 
A friend of mine who has been a successful sports bettor for 3-4 years now seems to have a flaw in his bankroll
management and I wanted to come here and get some input. Basically he readjusts his bankroll daily and I contend his is giving up too much value by doing this.

His argument is that his method is more conservative.
He also argues it lets his winning streaks compound fully.

I countered him by saying he is giving up too much value on his winning days following losing days which happen much more often that long streaks. (bounceback days 55% or so, win streaks 9-11%)

Shouldn't you have a large sample size of plays before readjusting or do it based on a longer time because your low % of BR risked on each play is a built-in mechanism for avoiding BUSTO?

I could be wrong in my thinking, but I would like to take his method he's teaching me and tweak it according to a few leaks I feel he has, thus making me more profitable.

Hope you guys will give some good input (that's why I came here). Take care.

Thremp 11-25-2007 06:55 PM

Re: Bankroll Management Question
 
You should readjust after every play ideally. Day by day is std since many events go off at once.

You are incorrect.

igetbadbeat 11-25-2007 06:56 PM

Re: Bankroll Management Question
 
I like to readjust instantly or go with a set amount of gambling capital/power.

That is, kelly bet based on a set number like 30K. Of course the way i do it, this is much more conservative since obviously the true bankroll size would have to be at least double.

jkpickett 11-25-2007 06:59 PM

Re: Bankroll Management Question
 
[ QUOTE ]
You should readjust after every play ideally. Day by day is std since many events go off at once.

You are incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

could you expound on that? is there math to back it up? i don't want this to come off as challenging you are calling you wrong, but i want to be able to present what you guys say to him in a detailed way if possible.

Thremp 11-25-2007 07:01 PM

Re: Bankroll Management Question
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should readjust after every play ideally. Day by day is std since many events go off at once.

You are incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

could you expound on that? is there math to back it up? i don't want this to come off as challenging you are calling you wrong, but i want to be able to present what you guys say to him in a detailed way if possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he uses Kelly Criterion (which is best) you readjust. If he is using % of bankroll you readjust as well.

Seems like he is using one or the other. He should be familiar with both systems if he cares enough to readjust his bet sizes.

jkpickett 11-25-2007 07:07 PM

Re: Bankroll Management Question
 
Well I know you readjust, but why every play rather than a set number of plays (say 150 or so). is there math behind this?

Thremp 11-25-2007 07:08 PM

Re: Bankroll Management Question
 
[ QUOTE ]
Well I know you readjust, but why every play rather than a set number of plays (say 150 or so). is there math behind this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm... Because you'll increase RoR by overbetting?

igetbadbeat 11-25-2007 07:09 PM

Re: Bankroll Management Question
 
[ QUOTE ]
Well I know you readjust, but why every play rather than a set number of plays (say 150 or so). is there math behind this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is more accurate(assuming GW Bushi isn't involved)

The estimates of who's winning the election, or the actual counted votes?

jkpickett 11-25-2007 08:03 PM

Re: Bankroll Management Question
 
alrighty well thanks then


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