Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

his range is fl draw set jj,tt here he can have jj,tt right? i was thinking that he should be dbl barreling every single hand in his range fl draw because he has good fold EQ and i think he would dbl barrel jj,tt on any non club turn for value vs ur possible fl draw and i think a good cash game player will realize that he can get a good player ( u said he knows u) off an overpair here as a bluff so he can bet it works 2 ways vs ur range. so i think the turn is a lot harder of a decision. if he bets around half pot i think ur getting to good of odds vs his range, if he bets the pot i think its a call because its more likely he'll play the 2 hands u beat like that than a set, if he bets 2/3 i think its a close decision because hes very like to make that bet with all 3 hands making a set a lil more likely then both hands u beat combined imo it seems like at best slightly ev so i fold and wait for much better spots, to a small bet like the 1 he did its a fold looks like an obv set. so i think i call flop and play turn like this and fold to river bet. what do i know though : )

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

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Doesn't this make us really exploitable if we fold overpairs to check raises on low flops?

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its the sunday million...

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...against JCarver.

I'm good with folding (though I often am guilty of the call and C/F the turn line), but we can't use the "don't worry about playing exploitable if your opponents are not good enough to exploit" rationale against a very solid villain who recognizes us, regardless of the quality of the field as a whole.

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I guarantee if he knew our cards he would think we would fold about 0% of the time, so no I'm not worried that he is exploiting us (I'm not saying I think it's a fold, I'd have to do some math for that, but I dont think exploitability is a significant issue here)

actually I have a final tomorrow so theres some chance I procrastinate by going all mathy on this thread

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

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I'm good with folding (though I often am guilty of the call and C/F the turn line), but we can't use the "don't worry about playing exploitable if your opponents are not good enough to exploit" rationale against a very solid villain who recognizes us, regardless of the quality of the field as a whole.

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right, so you worry about that *after*, not before, you post a thread about it.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

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his range is fl draw set jj,tt here he can have jj,tt right? i was thinking that he should be dbl barreling every single hand in his range fl draw because he has good fold EQ and i think he would dbl barrel jj,tt on any non club turn for value vs ur possible fl draw and i think a good cash game player will realize that he can get a good player ( u said he knows u) off an overpair here as a bluff so he can bet it works 2 ways vs ur range. so i think the turn is a lot harder of a decision. if he bets around half pot i think ur getting to good of odds vs his range, if he bets the pot i think its a call because its more likely he'll play the 2 hands u beat like that than a set, if he bets 2/3 i think its a close decision because hes very like to make that bet with all 3 hands making a set a lil more likely then both hands u beat combined imo it seems like at best slightly ev so i fold and wait for much better spots, to a small bet like the 1 he did its a fold looks like an obv set. so i think i call flop and play turn like this and fold to river bet. what do i know though : )

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I'd include 77-99 and possibly 44 in the range as well. I'm not sure the small bet here is huge strength, it could also be a weak second barrel of someone who doesn't want to go all the way with the hand. I think we're ahead of a significant chunk of his range, and I don't think we'll see a 3rd barrel from a hand we can beat, but we have to go pretty deep into our stacks to find out. If the flush comes on the river, and he checks, I think we can rep the flush and take away the pot. I think calling the turn is a high risk/high reward play I'd make some of the time, there's nothing wrong with folding.

This is a tough spot, one that happens all the time. This reminds me of a hand I played in the 5K 6-handed event at the WSOP. I called a raise in the BB with some 1 gapped suited connector. I flopped a pair, flush draw, and inside straight draw. I C/R'd the flop for 3X his c-bet, got called. Bet turn for about 2X previous bet, got called. 3 barreled river for 2X previous bet, guy thought forever and called with QQ, which was an overpair. I missed my 17 outs twice. I wish I had been playing against you guys instead. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

I don't think most pocket pairs are in his range after the turn bet (except sets obv). Though maybe TT is.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

man, i've never folded here ever, lol

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

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Doesn't this make us really exploitable if we fold overpairs to check raises on low flops?

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its the sunday million...

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...against JCarver.

I'm good with folding (though I often am guilty of the call and C/F the turn line), but we can't use the "don't worry about playing exploitable if your opponents are not good enough to exploit" rationale against a very solid villain who recognizes us, regardless of the quality of the field as a whole.

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I guarantee if he knew our cards he would think we would fold about 0% of the time, so no I'm not worried that he is exploiting us (I'm not saying I think it's a fold, I'd have to do some math for that, but I dont think exploitability is a significant issue here)

actually I have a final tomorrow so theres some chance I procrastinate by going all mathy on this thread

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so I started to do some math (f studying) but then it got real complicated so I'm just gonna switch to super oversimple math and see what happens

I think he's got a flush draw about 3/5 and a set 2/5 of the time (I counted ~20 flush draw combos and 9 set combos, and he raises the set more oftne than the flush draw)

so say you call and he fires the second barrel always with the set and 1/3 of the time with a flush draw and always with a made flush. Then ~1/5 of the time you're giving up when a club comes, 4/5 of the time no club comes and:
1/5 of the time he bets a flush draw, 2/5 of the time he bets a set, and 2/5 of the time he checks a flush draw

so again say you call (no club on turn) and he triple barrels a flush draw half the time he misses (and you give up when a club comes). 1/5 of the time you give up, of the 4/5 times no club comes, he bets a flush draw 1/5 of the time and a set 4/5 of the time.

so calling a 3 barrel sucks, how about calling the second barrel and hoping he doesn't fire a third (and no club comes)? the only way you win the pot is if no club comes on the river, he has a flush draw, and he checks it, which is... 4/5*1/3*1/2 = 13%, which makes the turn a bad call too.
so how about calling the flop, hoping he checks the turn w/ his flush draw?
on the turn he checks w/ a flush draw 4/5*2/5 ~= 1/3. however, then we see a river:
1/5 of the time on the river he hits a flush and you lose, and say he bluffs the river w/ his flush draw 1/5 of the time after checking the turn, which you obviously call because we managed to put him squarely on a flush draw (isnt math fun?)

so now of the 1/3 the time that you call the flop and he checks the turn, 4/5 of the time the hand is still live and you win a bigger pot 1/5 of the time and the regular pot 4/5 of the time.

SO, you are losing 1225 and 1/3*4/5*4/5 you win 3850, and 1/3*4/5*1/5 you win 3850 and say a 2750 river bluff, making the flop call slightly -EV (chips or so)

now obviously there were a ton of incorrect simplifications and ignoring a bunch of stuff (you hitting overset, them running a bluff, them hitting 2 pair/trips/gutshot/higher pair, etc), but they went both ways and GENERALLY I think it shows that the flop is actually a pretty close decision and I don't think either a call or fold is particularly awful

any thoughts, anyone?

back to studying for me.

edit: I also think I showed that calling the turn sucks a lot here, unless your assumptions are pretty radically different from mine

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

Fold the turn.

I agree that minus sets overpairs are now out of his range on the turn (44?55? I don't think so with that turn bet).

To be honest it's a ridiculously gross spot because your hand looks so transparent. If he knows you, and he knows your willing to lay down QQ here then sure he thinks its green light time with KJclubs,AJclubs,etc.

In the end I think he knows where we are at and doesn't expect us to fold, so I'm mucking.

QQ=AA here in this spot, we are all in accord with that, right?

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

Apparently Jason said he didn't know your stars name and thus played against you as if you were some random.

Knowing that I fold the flop. If he knows it's you it's closer but I probably still fold.

That said, he flopped a straight. nh.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

What bets the turn that we beat? I can't fold the flop but I like a turn fold.