Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

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Well that's a pretty stupid reason imo

I'm on GB ML at +127 for 2.5 units

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You are missing that Vegas bookmakers are experts that pick these spreads for casinos who make millions of dollars doing this, and you do not.

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Meh, whatever. KC isn't as good as they've been in previous years, and GB is better than they've been in previous years. GB is a much better team this year and I think that for KC to be favorites just because they're at home is stupid.

I don't care who makes what money, to me that is stupid.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

So the fact that KC is 4-3 this year, 15-4 at home vs. 8-12 on the road over the last three seasons (including 2-1 this year), has the best home record of any team since 1990, and is on top of their division is meaningless to you?

Don't get me wrong, I can be convinced here. But "GB is better than they have been and KC isn't as good as they have been" isn't good enough a reason to cut it.

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
So the fact that KC is 4-3 this year, 15-4 at home vs. 8-12 on the road over the last three seasons (including 2-1 this year), has the best home record of any team since 1990, and is on top of their division is meaningless to you?


[/ QUOTE ]

For this game, yes. Now if they're playing, say, the Browns, then Id completely understand if they're favorites.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

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Don't ask me why. I'm a Charger fan and we're onto our 3rd string nose tackle, I believe. We are going to have problems with Peterson.

[/ QUOTE ]
I take this back. Jamal Williams appears to be starting this week.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

http://www.sagestats.com/img/graph/s...c4c7089d7f.pngSageStats ensign_lee

YTD: 19-26-2
Units Won: -12.15

(one of my losing 3 unit teasers hasn't updated yet)

~~~
Allrighty; we've hit past the halfway mark in the season and I'm down 12 units. Weeeh. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] Well, I guess it could be worse. I could be down my entire bankroll and be down 100 units.

Okey doke: on to the games:

Parlay: Jacksonville M/L AND Under 40 (+427)
3 units at BetTrojan

I don't normally do parlays, but in this instance, I think it's worth it. If Jacksonville wins (and I think they will), this game will more than likely go under. So instead of taking the +170's hanging around, I'll take +427 and lose all the times that Jacksonville wins a shootout instead. Honestly, for Jacksonville to win this game, they'll need to dominate New Orleans's offense, and if that happens, this game should stay under 40. I'm willing to take that risk.

This game should be more at pk, in my opinion. Yes, the Saints have been doing well lately; but look at the last three teams that they've played: none are known for having the dominant defensive lines that Jacksonville has. I really think that the Jacksonville defense will be able to contain the offense of New Orleans and that the three back tandem of the Jags will be able to run at will on the Saints D. Hopefully, they follow the gameplan that they normally employ against the Colts: don't let the other offense on the field; rip it up on D. Heck, with the way I have this bet aligned, they only have to accomplish this once in every 4 times to even be +EV. I honestly think they'll do it more than half the time, so yeah.

Tennessee Titans -4 (-110)
3 units at JustBet

David Carr is starting? That's really all I need to know. I hate the Titans with a passion, but think that almost any team in the NFL can beat a team led by David Carr. Plus, Jeff Fisher played with David Carr in the division for the last 5 years; I think he gameplan to stop the dinks and dunks which are all Carr really can perform well. Much as it pains me, I think the Titans will be able to take care of business here. Plus, this goes back to the whole AFC > NFC South angle.

Denver/Detroit UNDER 45.5 (-105)
3 units at BetTrojan
This total seems really high for me, especially when considering that the strength of Detroit's offense is passing, which is what Denver is actually good at stopping...well, somewhat. And if Detroit comes out running all the time, the clock will continue to grind. Add in the fact that Denver seems to be unable to score in the same bunches they used to, and I really think that this under has a good shot at coming in.

San Francisco Moneyline (+170)
1 unit at BetTrojan

Atlanta is laying points to someone? You're kidding. I don't care how much San Francisco has been sucking; They win this game about half the time; getting +170 is definitely a +EV proposition.

Seriously, Atlanta is laying points to someone?

Denver Broncos +3 (-115)
1 unit at BetTrojan
The Lions offensive strength (passing) will walk right into the Broncos defense strength (passing). And I don't think that the Lions are truly versatile enough to overcome this Broncos squad.

Green Bay Moneyline (+115)
1 unit at BetTrojan
When I first saw this line, I stayed away because I thought "duh. Green Bay.", which usually means the public will be all over it and that the play is doomed. But the public is only on it at around a 60/40 clip, which is surprising to me. I think GB is the better team here, and that the Chiefs are going to have trouble trying to keep the Green Bay defense from penetrating the backfield. If the Chiefs QB has to throw to dig his team out of a hole, that will be playing right to the strength of a good GB defense. On the other hand, I feel that GB is up to the task of scoring on the Chiefs defense; I guess we'll see.

3 Team 7 point teaser (+150) - 3 units at BetTrojan
Green Bay +9
Arizona +10.5
San Francisco +10.5

The opponents in this are, in order: KC, TB, ATL. Not exactly known for being offensive powerhouses (KC in the past, but not so much this year). I think getting the points in these matchups will be very valuable, and should the visiting team not win, they shouldn't get blown out. Let's see what happens.

~~~
Allrighty; there's what I've got so far and my reasoning for them. Follow them if you want; fade them if you wish. Have fun y'all.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Arizona Cardinals M/L (+170)
1 unit at BetTrojan
Forgot one:

This is based purely on the Pinnacle leans + theGreek lean. They're holding -113 and -125, respectively, while most of the rest of the books are holding -110. Huh. Plus, for some reason or other, it seems like around 65% of the bets are on Tampa. I may increase this to two units later, depending on line moves; we'll see. For now, one unit.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Arizona Cardinals M/L (+170)
1 unit at BetTrojan
Forgot one:

This is based purely on the Pinnacle leans + theGreek lean. They're holding -113 and -125, respectively, while most of the rest of the books are holding -110. Huh. Plus, for some reason or other, it seems like around 65% of the bets are on Tampa. I may increase this to two units later, depending on line moves; we'll see. For now, one unit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have Bucs here.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Min +7.5 available at bodog

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Inimical NFL Slgorithm Spotting Systematic Addle-pates

out of town so don't have my record
down almost 4 units on over 30 bet

big weekend
Jets +3.5 -105 BetOnline
49ers +3.5 -110 5dimes
Bengals -1 -105 5dimes
Vikings +7 -100 BetOnline
Colts +6 -110 BetJamaica
Cowboys -3 -120 5dimes
Seattle +2 -110 Bodog