estimate the EV of these options
 

Please help me by estimating the EV of these options.
I'm most interested in getting some reasonable estimate. The less math the better.
Assume B&M mid-limits. List any assumptions as needed... especially an estiamte of how often this player will fold if we bet the turn.


UTG limps, he's loose and bad. (limps anything pretty) Everyone folds to the SB who calls. I check 7d8h in the BB.

Flop: 9h Th 4c
SB checks. I bet. Loose player calls. SB Folds.

Turn: Qh
EV of Bet-calling?
EV of Bet-folding?
EV of Check-calling?

Re: estimate the EV of these options
 

I can tell you unequivocally, the EV of betting and folding to a raise is -1.0 BB.

I think you meant, rank the options, in which case I'd put check/calling significantly ahead of bet/calling, and bet/folding last.

-DeathDonkey

Re: estimate the EV of these options
 

The problem with bet-calling is that you can check the turn, planning to bet any river when he checks behind. He will still fold the same number of hands, and it's much cheaper than bet/calling.

Re: estimate the EV of these options
 

check call the turn...

If he checks behind... bet the river and pray.

Re: estimate the EV of these options
 

pot is tiny, he most of the time has at least a pair even if he does suck - and there's a good chance a fair number of your draws will make a second best hand.

betting doesnt get folds often enough. if you check, the pot isnt big enough to continue with a weighted average of less than 8 outs (imo), and a bunch of dirty ones that carry reverse implied odds.

check/fold hasnt been mentioned for some reason, but ill throw it out there.