Live 2/5: AQo
 

Literally the end of my first orbit. My stack is about $550 after I won one small pot. I open OTB with Ac Qd to $20. Folded to the BB who makes it $80. He just sat down after sitting out when I first got there. Hasn't played a hand yet; he's a middle-aged man wearing a FTP shirt. Also, the casino is holding a circuit event, so a lot of people are here from out of town to play the NLHE tournaments during the day, if that's relevant. So that's all I have as far as a read. I call his raise. Good, bad or ugly?

Flop is AJ4r. He bets $125 pretty quickly, I call pretty quickly.

Turn is an 8, completing the rainbow. He checks before I even realize it. I pause for a while trying to get clueless dealer to confirm he has checked. Eventually, I decide he has checked and I quickly check behind.

River is a T. He quickly bets $350 to put me all-in. I fold.

How'd I do?

Re: Live 2/5: AQo
 

His stack is 350+125+80 = $505?

This hand is fairly ugly and I think the critical decision is preflop. By calling, you're saying you are willing to play for stacks with top pair. Two postflop bets will make that happen and I don't think you will have enough information to fold top pair.

It's OK to fold to the reraise if you're not willing to go AI if you flop TP. The read, if you will, is that he sat out a full orbit so that would tell me he's more likely a patient rather than gambling player.

There's $410 in the pot at the turn. Because of stack and pot sizes, I could argue for an all-in to protect your hand, or "check to induce the river bet, which you will call." ...or a smallish bet to suck in a weaker pair.

Before you fold the river, think why does he bet the flop and check the turn? With the two broadways on board, I think he would be more likely to bet *something* with any made hand. Unless it's Ace-10 specifically.

Re: Live 2/5: AQo
 

ez fold pf imo

online if i opened to 4x with aqo and got repopped to 16x i would usually fold. live, where things are more passive, i think it's even easier. you're calling off 1/7 of your stack with a potentially dominated hand. i'd rather call with a pocket pair in this spot.

Re: Live 2/5: AQo
 

also good fold because he has aaa or jjj 95+% of the time here imo. his check to let you catch up then riv "bluff" is v consistent with that.