3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
If you are betting on any of the Thanksgiving games (303-308), all picks should be listed before the start of that game. Standings are way behind now. What can I say, I'm no Easy E. No need to post about it in this thread. I will post the link again when standings are updated. Good luck this week.
http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/5499/31week12yv6.jpg |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
303
305/306 over 418 421/422 over |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
No Thursday game but posting the picks anyway:
408 - Min 409 - SF 399 - Jac 412 - Atl |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
404
405 407/408 u 305 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
307/308o
405 407/408o 399 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
edit: redue
|
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
418
409 306 402 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
409/410 Over
420 415/416 Over 307 Thanks Homer [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
409/410 Over
399 419/420 Over 422 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
304 lions +3
307 broncos +1 399 jaguars -3 405 bengals -3 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
ADDING:
423 Packers +9.5 424 Seahawks -9.5 o/u = 46 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
308 Chiefs
416 Pats 304 Lions 419 Giants |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
405
419 409/410o 413 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
401/402o
413/414o 423 404 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
308
404 413 422/421 over |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
305
400 412 421 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
413
305 307 406 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
408
401 304 303/304 over |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
416 Pats -3
405 Bengals -3 308 Chiefs -1 401 Texans +6 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
308
304 305 410 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
405/406 u43
411/412 u47.5 415/416 o36.5 419/420 u43 Well, picking sides seemed useless this week, everything was how I'd capped it, give or take 2 pts and although that says that my capping has improved (or got luckier more likely), it doesn't help me pick. So here are some totals: $400 Bengals/Browns under 43 I put this into my super 8-ball and this is what it told me would happen: 1st Quarter 15:00 Bengals kickoff out of endzone, Touchback to CLE 20 14:54 1 10 CLE 20 <font color="blue"> 34 Droughns </font> run to right side for 3 yards. 14:24 2 7 CLE 23 <font color="blue"> 34 Droughns </font> run to left side for 4 yards. 13:50 3 3 CLE 27 <font color="blue"> 34 Droughns </font> run through center for 3 yards. 13:19 1 10 CLE 30 <font color="blue"> 34 Droughns </font> run to right side for 5 yards. 12:44 2 5 CLE 35 <font color="blue">34 Droughns </font> run to right side for 4 yards. 12:12 3 1 CLE 39 <font color="blue"> 34 Droughns </font> run through center for 1 yard. .......... 5:03 1 GOAL CIN 4 <font color="blue"> 34 Droughns </font> run to left side, for 3 yards. <font color="red"> 34 Droughns </font> was injured on the play his return is probable. 4:49 2 GOAL CIN 1 <font color="blue"> 9 Frye </font> pass intendend for <font color="blue"> unknown </font> was intercepted in endzone. Not run back. 4:39 1 10 CIN 1 <font color="blue"> 9 Palmer </font> pass complete long center to <font color="blue"> 85 C.Johnson </font> for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Well, you get the idea. I don't think the Brown's, er, limited playbook is going to help them score, even less so if "34 Droughns " is out. $300 Saints/Falcons under 47.5 Last week it was based on a hunch, but I'm happier this time. The Saints game was headed well under until some 4th quarter silliness put it in danger. I believe that Saints games are over-pointed. $200 Bears/Pats over 36.5 I think some people/books/whatever are still living with last season's Bears. This season they have produced a lot more offense, although recent weeks have shown that they're certainly capable of struggling. I think this line is a bit of an overreaction to last week. $100 Giants/Titans under 43 Seems a sensible enough pick. Either the Giants stuff the Titans by 30 pts early on and ease down, or they dont stuff the Titans by 30 pts early on (The Titans have shown resistance at times) and win 17-7. Lori |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
401/402o
413/414o 308 407/408u Jets/Texans OVER 39.5 -- This is the Lock of the Year as far as I'm concerned (which means I like it to go over, say, 62% of the time). Both teams are considerably better on offense than defense, the weather is clear, and even their special teams favor offensive production. Granted, both teams have averaged almost exactly 39.5 total points points per game this year, but that's mostly to do with the fact they've both played very defense-oriented schedules so far. This line is based on first-level thinking -- use second level thinking and put yourself in a strongly +EV spot. Panther/Redskins OVER 36 -- Jason Campbell is better than the average backup, and is probably an immediate upgrade over Brunell. As such, Washington is still a strongly offense-oriented team, while Carolina is much closer to neutral than most people probably realize. This line is six or seven points too low. Chiefs -1 over Broncos -- The Chiefs, like the Broncos, are monsters at home, and Jay Cutler will be starting for Denver. Even though Plummer has been very mediocre this year, and Cutler should have a succesful career, Jay Cutler is still a rookie, in his first start, against a very good defense on the road. Besides, KC and Denver haven basically played at the same level so far this year, so even if Plummer were starting a one point spread would be pretty ridiculous. Vikings/Cardinals UNDER 38.5 -- Arizona is somewhat defense-oriented, Minnesota is very defense-oriented. Line should be more like 36.5. |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
[ QUOTE ]
Vikings/Cardinals UNDER 38.5 -- Arizona is somewhat defense-oriented, Minnesota is very defense-oriented. Line should be more like 36.5. [/ QUOTE ] I overlooked this game entirely somehow, I'm not changing my picks because I don't do that stuff, but I'll probably bet it. Lori |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
Thanks for the vote of confidence. Incidentally, I like all of your picks this week. Not as much as I like my four, obviously, but I think they're winners. Cleveland, in particular, has a defense that's really coming together, and Quarterback that's looking like a lost cause.
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Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
410
420 400 411 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
[ QUOTE ]
Chiefs -1 over Broncos -- The Chiefs, like the Broncos, are monsters at home, and Jay Cutler will be starting for Denver. Even though Plummer has been very mediocre this year, and Cutler should have a succesful career, Jay Cutler is still a rookie, in his first start, against a very good defense on the road. Besides, KC and Denver haven basically played at the same level so far this year, so even if Plummer were starting a one point spread would be pretty ridiculous. [/ QUOTE ] Oops, apparently Cutler is probably going to get the start next week, not today. My bad. Still, I like the pick. |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
304
400 414 420 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
[ QUOTE ]
4:49 2 GOAL CIN 1 9 Frye pass intendend for unknown was intercepted in endzone. Not run back. 4:39 1 10 CIN 1 9 Palmer pass complete long center to 85 C.Johnson for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [/ QUOTE ] -19 yard sack at 4:45 that took 6 seconds? |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
418
422 307 409 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
418
over 306/307 402 411 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
421/422 over
305/306 over 407/408 under 423 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 4:49 2 GOAL CIN 1 9 Frye pass intendend for unknown was intercepted in endzone. Not run back. 4:39 1 10 CIN 1 9 Palmer pass complete long center to 85 C.Johnson for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [/ QUOTE ] -19 yard sack at 4:45 that took 6 seconds? [/ QUOTE ] My excuse is that the 8-ball uses NFL.com Lori |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
419
416 417/418 over 409 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
307/308u
399 308 404 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
405 Bengals -3
415/416o Bears/Pats over 36.5 418 Colts -9 411/412u Saints/Falcons under 47.5 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
422 Chargers -13
422 49ers +5.5 418 Colts -9 415/6 OVER 36.5 (Pats/Bears) |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
421 Raiders +13. My analysis: 13 points is a lot.
402 419 408 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
400 411
300 404 200 405 100 417 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
422
409 415/416o 399 |
Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12
417
408 401 403/404 O |
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