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-   -   Good High Hand from Small Blind facing a Raise (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=275600)

getfunky 12-05-2006 11:01 AM

Good High Hand from Small Blind facing a Raise
 
I would have called if double suited. But I was out of position in a multiway pot. Good laydown?

PokerStars 3/6 Omaha/8 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $3.
[color=#666666]1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, [color=#CC3333]CO (poster) raises</font>, [color=#666666]2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

bbartlog 12-05-2006 11:37 AM

Re: Good High Hand from Small Blind facing a Raise
 
Limit I assume? Yes... I hate the unsuitedness of this hand. Maybe if I knew ahead of time that BB was going to call the raise along with everyone else I'd call, but I think this is a reasonable fold.

T50_Omaha8 12-05-2006 12:11 PM

Re: Good High Hand from Small Blind facing a Raise
 
Good lay down.

All high hands are not created equal. There's an astronomical difference between AAKJds, KKQTss, KQQTr, and KJTTr, for example, but due to the prevailing belief that high-only hands can turn a profit when they hit, lots of people play any 4 cards T+.

Habib Marwan 12-05-2006 03:29 PM

Re: Good High Hand from Small Blind facing a Raise
 
call dude

Buzz 12-05-2006 05:14 PM

Re: Good High Hand from Small Blind facing a Raise
 
Get Funky - You really want more than three or four opponents also seeing the flop to play this hand.

Fold.

Try this: Take the four cards for the hand out of a deck. Then shuffle the deck. There are 48 cards left in the deck, enough to deal out 16 three-card flops. Deal out the 16 three-card flops and see how many of them you like. I just did that and I only liked 2 out of the 16 (and they both had a queen).

Seven flop misses out of eight is too many with only three or four opponents also seeing the flop.

Fold.

Buzz

Habib Marwan 12-05-2006 05:45 PM

Re: Good High Hand from Small Blind facing a Raise
 
Buzz, the odds of flopping a set in 08 are 4:1 no? Also, Q Q K 10 has mad scoop capabilities. Maybe a leak in my game, but I'm calling here

bbartlog 12-05-2006 06:01 PM

Re: Good High Hand from Small Blind facing a Raise
 
4:1 if you have QQKK maybe... only one in eight for each pair though...

Niediam 12-06-2006 04:37 AM

Re: Good High Hand from Small Blind facing a Raise
 
In a 1:2 blind structure I call this every time.

Here for me it depends on how much action you are going to get when you end up with a monster...

Buzz 12-06-2006 06:01 AM

Re: Good High Hand from Small Blind facing a Raise
 
[ QUOTE ]
Buzz, the odds of flopping a set in 08 are 4:1 no?

[/ QUOTE ]Habib - No. 8:1 is closer (but there are some other possibilities... see below)[ QUOTE ]
Also, Q Q K 10 has mad scoop capabilities.

[/ QUOTE ]Agreed.[ QUOTE ]
Maybe a leak in my game, but I'm calling here

[/ QUOTE ]Habib – Since I have great respect for your opinion, I am troubled when we disagree. But here we do disagree.

Out of 17296 possible flops when you hold KQQT, there are:<ul type="square">48 ways to flop quads (KKK, TTT, QQZ)
150 ways to flop a full house (KKQ, KKT, KTT, QTT, QPP)
120 ways to flop trip kings (KKZ)
1924 ways to flop a set of queens, (QYZ) and
120 ways to flop trip tens (TTZ).

That’s a total of 2362.[/list]Thus holding KQQT, you flop a set, trips, full house, or quads roughly one time out of seven. 2362/17296 = ~1/7.3.
Of that, 1924/17296 = 0.111 is a set and
2164/17296 = ~0.125 = 1/8 is three of a kind (a set or trips)

KQQT also flops a straight some of the time. Not including what we’ve already counted, there are 208 additional ways KQQT can flop a straight, making a total of 2570 ways (out of 17296) the hand can flop three of a kind or better. That’s about 14.9%.

There also are some straight draws not already included in the above, <ul type="square">AJ9, looking for king, queen, ten or eight,
AJL, looking for king, queen or ten,
KJL, looking for ace (for nuts) or ten (for 2nd nuts),
JTL, looking for ace or nine.[/list]Add another 1184 (if I’ve tallied correctly). We’re up to 3754/17296 flops we can play (21.7%).

Want to add in two pairs, kings over tens? That’s another 324 not already counted. O.K. make it 4078/17296. 23.6%. That’s tops in terms of the flops you can play, unless you're willing to gamble on a 2-out semi-bluff. (I suppose there may be a few other remote possibilities I haven't included. But in my own mind it's moot. I'm generally folding this hand on three out of four flops... something like that).

And those roughly one out of four favorable flops are not all guaranteed wins. For example, if you flop a set of queens, you still may need the board to pair. Neither are all those nut draws. Nor are they all for the whole pot.

As simulated for a check (100,000 runs) when you hold KQQT, you flop <ul type="square">245 quads
1058 full houses
12343 three of a kinds
1914 straights.[/list]That’s pretty close to what is calculated above. Some of the straights in the simulation involve a queen, which I counted as a set of queens above (because I figured the set of queens before the straight and then didn’t want to double count – I could just as well have done it the other way around).

Also as simulated, the hand comes up on the short end against three or four opponents.

For this month’s on-line magazine article, I came up with a simple point count system to estimate whether or not Hero should see the flop with a particular starting hand. Hero needs five points to voluntarily play a hand. KQQT-rainbow, is a two point hand. (The pair of queens gets one point and the KQT sequence gets one point). I don’t voluntarily play two point hands. Moreover, I sincerely think it’s a leak in your game if you do.

That’s just my opinion. Mark Tenner and Lou Krieger, both surely better poker players than I am, advise in their book, “play any hand totaling 40 points or more” – and KQQT is a forty point hand, even though it’s a rainbow.

Double suited, I’m playing the hand. Single suited to the king I’m playing the hand from the button if there are enough limpers already in the pot and if I’m virtually certain I will not get raised by a blind. But I’m adamant about not playing it as a rainbow hand from any position except the unraised big blind.

Buzz

BeltBuster 12-06-2006 08:21 AM

Re: Good High Hand from Small Blind facing a Raise
 
g'damn Buzz, I'm close to crying by all your wisdom.

If I dont't remember wrong you mainly play live and that I'm glad for!

From now on I gonna try take a deep breath and klick the boring fold-button in this situation. (The little devil on my shoulder will try to stop me though)


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