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Playing the Second Nut Flush Draw in Omaha 8 or Better
by Frank Jerome
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It had been a couple of hours since I had won a decent sized pot. Mostly there had been a slow but steady erosion of my chips. Sometimes it happens that way. It was a nine handed 4/8 table with a single blind structure and a waiting list to get into the game.

I was sitting in seat number three and the button was at seat number five. My fingers trembled a bit as I peeked at the first card dealt to me. It was the ace of hearts, one of my four favorite cards. (My other three favorite cards are the other three aces). I glanced around the table, moving just my eyes and not my head, wondering if anyone had noticed my inadvertent and possibly imperceptible tell. No clues. I guessed probably not.

I kept the cards touching the felt of the table top as I bent over to peek at them one at a time, savoring each one in turn. Maybe this is why I play Omaha-8, just to feel the excitement of looking at my cards and feel the anticipation of possibly playing a hand.

Ace of hearts.... good.
King of clubs... good.
Four of spades.... hmm, maybe.
Three of clubs... good.
All right! I had a playable hand!

Cupping both of my hands around the cards and pinning one end of them to the table, I lifted the other end of the cards barely an inch from the felt and spread them just enough to peek at all four cards together. Sure enough, AhKc4s3c - not a premiere starting hand, but I liked it.

Two loose players in front of me limped. Two tight players behind me were yet to act.

I feel that I can raise before the flop (or not) with almost any hand I’ll play. This time I decided to raise, reasoning it would be a bit hard for anyone to put me on this specific hand and by raising I might knock out the players in seats #4 and #5, thus gaining the positional advantage of the acting last on subsequent betting rounds.

However, the players in seats four and five both called the double bet. (So much for betting to gain position). I wondered what the players in seats four and five, both tight players, held in order to call a double bet.

Suddenly I felt a pang of doubt about the hand. I thought to myself, “One of these guys must have an ace-deuce for low.” (At a full table somebody’s hand is going to contain an ace-deuce about half the time when my hand is A3XY - and I sensed this time two of somebody’s cards were indeed an ace plus a deuce.

The big blind poster called the single bet raise, as did the two limpers. Pre-flop calls by players who have already limped or by the big blind poster usually have little meaning to me, depending on the players involved. Six of us to the flop. The pot was twelve small bets less the rake of four dollars and also less the jackpot collection of one dollar.

The flop was Jc,Td,5c.

Check, check, check, my turn.

Before the flop, when seats #4 and #5 called the double pre-flop bet, I was mainly concerned that one of them held ace-deuce low. But now, after this flop, low became a secondary consideration. My primary concern shifted to wondering if anyone had the nut flush draw.

An exciting and interesting aspect of Omaha-8 play is you often start out primarily looking for one thing with your four cards, but then that can change to looking for something else after the flop - and then yet another direction may be indicated after the turn.

At any rate, like it or not, my hand, AhKc4s3c, had become primarily a second nut flush draw hand. In addition, one of three non-club queens on the turn or river would make a Broadway (ace high straight) for me. Thus I had about twelve outs for the turn (and 33 misses).

Oops! Take away the ten of clubs. I did not want to see the ten of clubs on the turn (since it would pair the board). But I didn’t want to count the ten of clubs as a miss either (since it would make my flush). O.K., make it 11 outs and 33 misses.

Thus it’s about 3 to 1 against my catching one of my high outs on the turn.

Back to the action. There had been three checks to me. I could check too, and one of the two opponents behind me might bet. I had nothing at this point - not even a pair - but the hand had possibilities. I didn’t trust one of the two tight opponents behind me to bet this flop and I wanted a bet going into the pot on this betting round.

I wondered if anyone had the nut club draw. (It’s a bit better than two to one that nobody has the nut club draw when you have the 2nd nut club draw). How many would chase along if I bet? Would any of the chasers have the nut club flush draw? Would somebody with the nut flush draw raise?

I just needed four opponents out of the five to chase in order to have favorable odds to bet. Here’s the reasoning:

Since a king flush is going to lose to an ace flush about one time out of three, let’s only count two thirds of the clubs as outs. That would have us counting 6 outs for the club flush. But, since one of those is the ten which pairs the board, let’s only count five club outs.

Note that 8*2/3 is actually 5.33, rather than 5. But 5 is close enough.

Then we also have 3 outs for the Broadway. But since we’ll have to split with another Broadway some of the time, those 3 outs are actually slightly less than 3. But 3 is close enough.

Thus we have a total of about 8 outs. And we have two chances.
Here’s the math set-up for the next step:
(8/44) + (36/44)*(8/43)

Then solving (8/44) + (6.7/44) = (14.7/44) = about one third.

Thus we expect to win about one third of the time and lose two thirds of the time. We lose one chip on each of the two times we lose. Therefore we need to win two chips each time we win.

With two callers, we should have roughly a break even proposition.

At any rate, my thinking is that I need two callers to justify a bet here. If so, I’m winning as much money from this betting round on all the times when I win as I’m losing on all the times when I lose.

And that’s not including the back-door low possibilities in case the river is a deuce, and it’s also not including implied possibilities if I make my draw. In addition, it will be more difficult for an opponent to read my hand for what it is if I bet here rather than after the turn is a club or a queen. If I check here and then bet when the turn is a club, my opponents will put me on the flush. If I check here and then bet when the turn is a queen, my opponents will put me on a straight.

There also is a good reason not to bet here. If I bet, I may get raised - and the resultant double bet could knock out all my other opponents. I need two callers to justify initiating fresh money into the pot.

If somebody in front of me had bet, I would not make it two bets, because the double bet might possibly reduce the number of callers.

But nobody has bet, I think I’m getting favorable fresh money odds, and I do want to make sure a bet goes into the pot this second round.

At any rate, I bet the flop.

Call, call, fold, fold, call.

I lost a couple, but at least I got three callers, more than I figured I needed to justify my bet. Whatever. What’s done is done.

I do not have very good idea of what cards my three opponents all hold. And now I’m completely out of position, with one player in front of me and two behind me. Oh well... at least I didn’t get raised, making it look a bit less as though I’m up against the nut flush draw. But the nut flush draw is still a nagging concern.

The turn is the Qh, a very good card for me. I have a Broadway straight, the nut high at this point. Plus I have the 2nd nut flush re-draw. I wonder if anyone else has AKXY and thus also has the Broadway. I’ll find out soon enough. Surely someone with another Broadway will bet and/or raise.

My mind wanders ahead to the river. Mainly I’m hoping the river card does not pair the board. But if the river card doesn’t pair the board, do I want to see a club on the river or not? If the river is not a club, and if the river does not pair the board, then my Broadway is the nuts, but I may have to share with an opponent who also has the Broadway. If the river is a club, I won’t have to share with anyone, but I expect to lose to the ace flush about one time out of three.

My musing is interrupted as the player in seat #1 checks. It’s my turn to act. This time there is no question about what to do. I bet. Let’s see if I get raised or not.

Call, call, call. (Fine. Looks like nobody else has the Broadway. Now I don’t want either a club or a pairing card on the river!)

The river is 9c.

I have mixed feelings. I no longer have the nuts, but at least the board didn’t pair. The trouble with playing a king flush is you never know for certain if an opponent has the ace flush or not. This time, somehow it “feels” like my 2nd nut flush is good here, but there are no guarantees.

The player in seat #1 checks. It’s my turn to act.

Although I don’t have the nut flush, it feels like I have the best hand. I wonder how I can maximize my profit.

I can check or bet. If I check and the player in seat #4 or seat #5 bets, I can fold, call or raise. If I bet and get raised, I can fold, call, or re-raise. Thus I actually have six possible options:

• check planning to fold to a bet
This is not a viable option because if I check, seat #4 or seat #5 might bet for a variety of reasons. Since I won’t be able to know if the player betting has the ace flush or not, I’ll be forced to call.

• check planning to raise a bet
This is not a viable option either because I neither have position nor the nuts. I’m not going to check-raise into the nut flush.

• check planning to call a bet
+If one of the players behind me will bet if I check but fold if I bet, this seems a fine option.

• bet planning to fold to a raise
Is either seat #4 or seat #5 audacious enough to raise without either the ace flush or the king flush? Is seat #1 audacious enough to check-raise without either the ace flush or the king flush? Someone with the bare ace of clubs might try it. And because of this possibility, I have to call the raise. Therefore this is not a viable option.

• bet planning to re-raise a raise
If I get raised here, the most likely scenario is I’m up against the nut flush. I’m not going to re-raise. Therefore this is not a viable option either.

• bet planning to call a raise
If I bet and get raised, calling seems the best option.

Thus I really only have two viable options.
• check planning to call a bet, and
• bet planning to call a raise.

I don’t have the feeling anybody has the nut flush. Since I’m not clairvoyant, that feeling doesn’t mean much. But in addition, the odds are against it.

I take a sideways glance at the players in seat #4 and seat #5. Will either of these guys bet if I check?

I decide they probably won’t and I bet, hoping to get a call or two from a lower flush or straight.

Fold, fold, call. I show my king flush and the player in seat #1 mucks his hand in anger. (He slams his cards down and complains about the dealer never doing well for him). I wonder what cards he held, and could have asked to see them, but that would have been bad form. He probably wanted to see the board pair on the river.

I got my own $28 investment back, plus I won 10 big bets, less $1 for the jackpot collection, less $2 for the dealer’s toke. $77 net. However, I had to post a kill pot of eight bucks. Thus my profit on the hand was actually $69 plus the $8 involuntary investment in the next pot.

It’s still a nice gain and enough to keep me going for a while.

If the pot had been a split pot, and if I had only won half the pot, my profit would have been about $25 (after taking out a $1 toke for the dealer). I wouldn’t have been forced to post a kill blind, to basically leave behind one big bet. If I had not been forced to post the kill blind, my profit by scooping would have been three times what a half pot win would have been worth. Even so, by scooping I won almost that much more.

You truly have to scoop in this game to get anywhere.