October [censored] thread
 

Post any random thoughts, trades or ideas as they pop into your head in this thread.

Re: October [censored] thread
 

I just heard that according to the SEC it is illegal for mutual funds to try and time the market? Is this true?

Re: October [censored] thread
 

i dont know ahnuld.

although i am good at predicting downfalls:

[ QUOTE ]
hope september has been a good month for everyone, ive somehow made money, which means ill no doubt have a terrible october

[/ QUOTE ]

gold down $19 today. so -$1140 for me!

i am going to stop checking the price, it is too addictive, although no matter how low it goes and i am going to leave my position, i am in this for the long long long term.

Re: October [censored] thread
 

where do i buy good quality shirts from? i am from UK btw. i am thinking so far trying ctshirts.co.uk and josephturner.co.uk

btw i also do not like leaving the house to go shopping, so pref online.

ty for any suggestions.

Re: October [censored] thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just heard that according to the SEC it is illegal for mutual funds to try and time the market? Is this true?

[/ QUOTE ]

uh, i don't know but i guess it depends on what market timing is.

is market timing stock picking? or simply moving in and out of an index? if the latter, i'm not sure why the SEC woudl make a regulation preventing a mutual fund from doing that. isn't htat what investors pay mutual funds for? (i.e. deciding when to overweight/underweight equities in addition to over/underweighting individual stocks relative to their benchmark)?

if not, then i don't know what the SEC thinks market timing is??

Barron

Re: October [censored] thread
 

Barron, same here. Im pretty sure he meant moving in and out of securities, and the reason was that it could be used as an excuse to ramp up trading fees.

Re: October [censored] thread
 

The only market timing ban on mutual funds that I've heard of relates to the scandal a few years ago. This "market timing" allowed special customers to buy the funds after market close at the days price, when they should actually pay the next days price. This is essentially timing when the fund would be up or down the next day based on after market news and increased costs for non timing mutual fund customers.

Wiki on Market Timing Scandal

Re: October [censored] thread
 

yeah DC iv come across that case before, pretty gross stuff.

Re: October [censored] thread
 

Can someone explain to me what on earth is going on with BIDU? this stock is moving like crazy and went up 14% today. Apparently its a Chinese search engine? Next google ftw?

Re: October [censored] thread
 

vanity license plate spotted at/near ryerson university in toronto. 52WEEKHI pretty creative i thought, but it was on a mazda 3 :\

Re: October [censored] thread
 

anyone know why the yen has been struggling vs the dollar in the past week or two despite dollars significantly poor performance vs GBP?

Re: October [censored] thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
anyone know why the yen has been struggling vs the dollar in the past week or two despite dollars significantly poor performance vs GBP?

[/ QUOTE ]

the first thing that comes to mind is the japanese dependence on the US as an export market (though less so more recently) vs. the british dependence on the US (which is significantly less. UK needs europe more thant he US by a long shot).

so a downturn in teh US cuold lead to export led slowdown in growth in Japan and thus a hold on interest rate increases planned by the BoJ.

while in the UK, the BoE is simply holding rates as they are right now (i.e. at a relatively high level). if the UK housing market (which is hotter than the US one was last year) collapses, then there may be an expectation of the BoE reducing rates. but as it stands, england is doing well (save northern rock obv) and i don't thinkt he market is expecting lower UK rates any times soon.

the US on the other hand has already had significant rate drops.

one explanation as to why the JPY/USD didn't rise so much is that short sales of the yen could have increased as demand for risky assets again shot up (as seen by the record setting MSCI emerging market index's 25% gain recently). so outright yen shorts (i.e. the carry trade) could be offsetting the weakness in the USD as a result of the fall in interest rates int he US relative to japan.

the UK has no such short sales since it's current rate is already at 5.75% (i think...might be 5.5 or 6.0...too lazy to check though i'm pretty sure it is at 5.75)

any other thoughts/criticisms are welcome (i.e. please comment so we can all learn more [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

Barron

Re: October [censored] thread
 

Was wondering if anyone can give me some advice.. I'm in Canada, I have OSAP student loan, I should start paying my OSAP in Jan of 2009, so about a year or so from now.. I have American money.. do I exchange right now or wait until then in your opinion? Really wish I traded a few months ago [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: October [censored] thread
 

anyone here read the book your money and your brain by Jason Zweig?

Re: October [censored] thread
 

Barron, thanks a lot for taking the time to explain all that. i'm trying to short the dollar as much as i can, i've have a leveraged position on gold, so i think ill end the USD/JPY short i have becuase it's not doing well despite the dollar struggling. likely for the reasons you outline.

ill look into another currency to short against the dollar, although right now i'm thinking maybe a punt at oil.

yep it is 5.75% in the uk, that's about as far as my knowledge goes lols.

thanks again, both useful and interesting.

john

Re: October [censored] thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Barron, thanks a lot for taking the time to explain all that. i'm trying to short the dollar as much as i can, i've have a leveraged position on gold, so i think ill end the USD/JPY short i have becuase it's not doing well despite the dollar struggling. likely for the reasons you outline.

ill look into another currency to short against the dollar, although right now i'm thinking maybe a punt at oil.

yep it is 5.75% in the uk, that's about as far as my knowledge goes lols.

thanks again, both useful and interesting.

john

[/ QUOTE ]

np.

but i think you took what i said about the JPY/USD and inverted the conclusion i'd draw.

i just gave possible reasons as to why the market has behaved the way that it has.

what is more important is where we're at now and what might happen going forward.

i'd be long the JPY/USD right now. exiting a trade "b/c it isn't doing well" as a result of an explanation as to what might have happened to result in that performance i don't think is a good idea.

the yen is definitely undervalued vs. the dollar at the moment imo.

the fundamental forces have been at work for some time and have taken global risk aversion to move from the mark at which i had an 80% + signal (123.18 vs. the dollar). risk aversion forced people to close out of risky asset positions and repatriate money to japan.

the yen is still very cheap in real terms vs. the dollar (close to a 20 or 30 year low...possibly a record low but i'm not sure about that...that 123.18 mighta been a record, not sure). the Economists's (rudimentary) PPP calculation put the yen at 121 to be some 25% undervalued vs. the dollar.

now, their PPP index isn't tradeable for a ton of reasons we don't need to get into now but it shows at least some roundabout figure of how cheap the yen is relative to the dollar.

i'd hold onto that long position if i were you.

oen of the main reasons is the asymmetry of exepcted returns for that trade. if the yen falls too much more, larger economic flows will start to overwhelm the carry traders. investments in japan would become even cheaper as would their exports etc. which would increase the demand for them and thus provides a floor to how much lower the yen could fall.

on teh other side, your expected returns are far less likely to have the same relative cap put on them since it would take a much larger move in the yen for the reverse economic flows to occurr given the undervalued position it finds itself in at the moment.

hope this helps,
Barron

PS- i've noticed that your portfolio's additions lately are pretty likely to be highly correlated. you might want to watch this as it could expose you to diversifiable risks unnecessarily.

Re: October [censored] thread
 

Thanks again Barron, I've tried to re-read it a few times to get it stored in my brain.

For once my economics degree is actually coming in handy becuase i can understand that.

I can't really comment on what you've said becuase I don't know enough, but I'm going to try and research more into this.

Regarding my portfolio, most of it is just in savings at the moment, though i'm looking into rolling bonds. i just figure with a small percentage of my worth i should be looking to take calculated risks with some long term investments, such as gold, oil and shorting the dollar.

hopefully in a few weeks ill be able to say some useful jpy/usd data and info back for your benefit. also to save you looking it up the record low was 124.09 on jun 22nd, latest is 116.83.

thanks again.

Re: October [censored] thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks again Barron, I've tried to re-read it a few times to get it stored in my brain.

For once my economics degree is actually coming in handy becuase i can understand that.

I can't really comment on what you've said becuase I don't know enough, but I'm going to try and research more into this.

Regarding my portfolio, most of it is just in savings at the moment, though i'm looking into rolling bonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok. i just made the comment b/c every time i saw you taking a new position lately it nvolved something correlated with a weak dollar.

[ QUOTE ]
i just figure with a small percentage of my worth i should be looking to take calculated risks with some long term investments, such as gold, oil and shorting the dollar.

[/ QUOTE ]

sounds good.

[ QUOTE ]


hopefully in a few weeks ill be able to say some useful jpy/usd data and info back for your benefit. also to save you looking it up the record low was 124.09 on jun 22nd, latest is 116.83.

thanks again.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, thanks (i wasn't gunna loook it up...read:lazy... but thank you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

and you're welcome.

Barron

Re: October [censored] thread
 

John Kane,


I just ordered a suit and 2 shirts from these guys

http://www.dress-for-success.com/

I picked them up today and everything was excellent. The shirts are like $30USD each and are made to measure. The made the shirts well after measuring me. The suit took a few fittings.

Re: October [censored] thread
 

can anyone give me any good reasons why an investor who understands normal variance would ever hold cash as part of their portfolio (cash/stocks/bonds)?

Re: October [censored] thread
 

and graham wrote that the least amount an investor should generally hold in corp. bonds was 30% of their portfolio. Iv been doing some reading online and was wondering if this still holds true anymore

Re: October [censored] thread
 

Anyone willing to help review my resume? Getting rejected left and right from jobs so maybe I'm missing/overlooking something.

I've so far been applying to both i-banks and quant. fin. jobs.

Re: October [censored] thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
and graham wrote that the least amount an investor should generally hold in corp. bonds was 30% of their portfolio. Iv been doing some reading online and was wondering if this still holds true anymore

[/ QUOTE ]

Graham was very conservative. Obv. Buffett followed almost all of his advice except over portfolio allocations. Graham went through the great depression and almost lost everything in his portfolio so he was always suspicious of being 100% equities.

Re: October [censored] thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone willing to help review my resume? Getting rejected left and right from jobs so maybe I'm missing/overlooking something.

I've so far been applying to both i-banks and quant. fin. jobs.

[/ QUOTE ]

They will often just look at high GPAs first and go from there so it could be that your resume is fine. If you are still in school your career center should have some program setup where they go through your resume with you.

Re: October [censored] thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
can anyone give me any good reasons why an investor who understands normal variance would ever hold cash as part of their portfolio (cash/stocks/bonds)?

[/ QUOTE ]

he/she feels that risk premia are stretched too thin and all/most asset classes are due for an adjustment. (i.e. the investor who understands normal variance is willing to take a portfolio wide active decision).

Barron

Re: October [censored] thread
 

ok but does it really make sense for that to be part of a long term asset allocation plan, such as 60% equities, 30% bonds, 10% cash?

Re: October [censored] thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
ok but does it really make sense for that to be part of a long term asset allocation plan, such as 60% equities, 30% bonds, 10% cash?

[/ QUOTE ]

no. but that isn't what you asked [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Barron

Re: October [censored] thread
 

oh, def. not what I asked, just my random thoughts after having to do some investment portfolio management reading and trying to find mistakes in the text

Re: October [censored] thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
oh, def. not what I asked, just my random thoughts after having to do some investment portfolio management reading and trying to find mistakes in the text

[/ QUOTE ]

to be fair, one reason to hold some cash is that it is negatively correlated with equities and bonds.

cash returns more when short term interest rates go up. an increase in S-T rates hurts both equities and bonds.

furhter, this return is absolutely not volatile at all relative to bonds and stocks.

Barron

Re: October [censored] thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
John Kane,


I just ordered a suit and 2 shirts from these guys

http://www.dress-for-success.com/

I picked them up today and everything was excellent. The shirts are like $30USD each and are made to measure. The made the shirts well after measuring me. The suit took a few fittings.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks, just looked over the site, may well get some shirts shipped over and a suit.

anyone got any other ideas? sorry i know this is the finance forum not the fashion forum, but figured best place.

Re: October [censored] thread
 

anyone have thoughts on china digital tv holdings? (stv)

Re: October [censored] thread
 

I love Apple right now. Random thought for the day.

Re: October [censored] thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
I love Apple right now. Random thought for the day.

[/ QUOTE ]

why? Its trading at a huge multiple to even the most optimistic future growth expectations.

Re: October [censored] thread
 

Got in at a nice entry point, ???, profit.

Re: October [censored] thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Got in at a nice entry point, ???, profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure ahnuld's point is the "???" should be "sell"

Re: October [censored] thread
 

I like gamestop until dec 15th. They are still growing and this is their busy season. I feel like the market will trade it to equiliberium by mid Dec when people realize how well they've done. Thoughts?

Re: October [censored] thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Got in at a nice entry point, ???, profit.

[/ QUOTE ]


Nice, I got allin with a flush draw vs a set last night, ???, won the hand and made money. So it must have been a good play right? I mean, I made MONEY.

Re: October [censored] thread
 

Wow bitter much? I thought this was the "talk about whatever the [censored] we want to" thread. I made money on Apple, good for me.

Re: October [censored] thread
 

What bitterness are you talking about? You said you "love apple now". Not that you made money on it. Sorry for not inferring what you meant and offering congratulations. Im just pointing out why I feel its silly to "love apple now". My view that its overvalued is just an opinion and I expected you to offer a rebuttal that would hopefully provide some insight into apples potential that I wasnt aware of. Instead you offered the fact that you made money on the trade in the past as proof. So I brought up a proper analogy to poker pointing out the flaw in that way of thinking. Yeah, but im clearly bitter

Re: October [censored] thread
 

Nowhere in your original post did you say "Here are my thoughts on why Apple is overpriced and please give a thorough rebuttal to my opinion." I don't claim to be anywhere near the level of guys like you, Barron, DesertCat, etc.. for understanding the market.

I would honestly love to hear why you think Apple is overvalued. You may be absolutely right and I wouldn't know. The reasons I am bullish on Apple are:
3Q earnings look very promising.
holiday season is always excellent for them.
still have a very small slice of the home PC market which will increase.
obviously have a very tiny slice of the cell phone market but I believe that will also increase exponentially in the next few years.
Apple's ability to maintain the "cool" factor, which is rare as companies grow IMO.