3-bet or call with the second nuts
 

It seems like this should be easy, but I keep flip-flopping on it in my head. Sorry if this is a dumb post.

UTG is a capable of being a total spazz, but I'm not sure how he's playing right now. The last time I played with him, he started giving literally max action with any draw (i.e. raise-capping the turn with a gutshot and then bet-folding the river) and did it for a good 30 minutes before he finally stopped re-buying and quit. He's gotten a bit out of line this session, but nothing quite so extreme.

MP is an obnoxious tub of lard who barks at casino employees and smells bad. She keeps offering lifesavers to everyone at the table, and when I realized that she was storing said lifesavers in her massive cleavage, I threw up in my mouth a little. She's a bad player who plays a bit too loose and doesn't read hands all that well (although she's not clueless). She can be sporadically aggressive in dumb spots and will sometimes push hard with her draws. If someone plays back at her, though, she'll usually just go into call-down mode.

FWIW, at this cardroom there is a $150 bonus for making a straight-flush on the river.

Live 10-20.

PF: UTG limps, a couple more people limp including MP, I limp in the CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], button folds, blinds call.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players, 6 SB)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG raises, 1 fold, MP calls, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG caps, everyone calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players, 11 BB)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG folds, MP check-raises, hero...?

3-bet here or just call? I don't like to slow down with the second nuts against a bad player, but I've got all the good cards except the one that beats me. If I 3-bet, can I fold to a cap, or do I have to call down (and pray for the 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])?

Also, anyone raise this PF? I came very close, but the blinds were a little tightish and I decided I'd rather play this hand in a 6-way unraised pot than a 4-way raised one.

Re: 3-bet or call with the second nuts
 

3 bet and definitely do not fold to a cap.

Re: 3-bet or call with the second nuts
 

I 3-bet out of hatred but I know that's not a good reason. Don't fold.

Re: 3-bet or call with the second nuts
 

I would 3-bet every time, [especially if SB is still in - the action is a little confusing as described].

While a 4-bet has you beat mostly - you do mention that MP pushes draws and slows down mostly but not all the time when pushed back - so I would call it. She could have two lower clubs as well because she is loose... I would almost always call a river bet too (by this time there would be 19 big bets in the pot)- but would hate to see another club or the board pair up...

Re: 3-bet or call with the second nuts
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would 3-bet every time, [especially if SB is still in - the action is a little confusing as described].

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry - SB folded flop (I think). It was definitely heads-up when I got check-raised.

Re: 3-bet or call with the second nuts
 

super easy raise preflop

Re: 3-bet or call with the second nuts
 

[ QUOTE ]
super easy raise preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

I was waiting for that. If it's a given that button will likely fold to your raise (he was pretty tight) and the blinds looked like they didn't like their hands, what's the weakest hand you would raise with here?

Re: 3-bet or call with the second nuts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
super easy raise preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

I was waiting for that. If it's a given that button will likely fold to your raise (he was pretty tight) and the blinds looked like they didn't like their hands, what's the weakest hand you would raise with here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be thinking value more than buying the button slash eliminating players. I'd prob pop T9s for value, lower SCs for +/-EV [censored] and giggles. Suited aces too.

Re: 3-bet or call with the second nuts
 

So I did what everyone says and 3-bet the turn. Villain capped in rhythm and I called.

The river paired the Q and villain bet out in rhythm. Anyone find a fold here getting 20:1? I know the answer to that, of course, but after that turn action and with the board still pairing, how often am I really going to be good here? Is she going to turn over 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] more than 5% of the time?

Re: 3-bet or call with the second nuts
 

it's close to 1 in 20. she's a little loony right?