[200nl] raylapsley observed hand, is his bluff here +ev?
 

I have heard several people state that ray is an excellent, feared player at 1/2. Tell me what you guys think of his very unconventional play in this hand I mined today. Is his Criver shove psychotic or brilliant?

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000"> CO($234.40)</font>
Button ($242.60)
<font color="#C00000">Ray ($198)</font>
BB ($185.40)
UTG ($200)
MP ($221)

Preflop: is with , .
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333"> CO raises to $6</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Ray calls $5, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($14) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Ray checks, <font color="#CC3333"> CO bets $10</font>, Ray calls $10.

Turn: ($34) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333"> CO bets $20</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Ray raises to $66</font>, CO calls $46.

River: ($166) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Ray bets $116 (All-In)</font>, CO calls $116.

Final Pot: $398

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Ray has 7s Kd (straight, jack high).
CO has Qh Jd (straight, queen high).
Outcome: wins $398. </font>

Re: [200nl] raylapsley observed hand, is his bluff here +ev?
 

Ray has had a bad two days and admits to being a little tilted at times. That might be his problem here. He certainly seems to base a lot of his game on winning pots without showdown and he does that by putting real tough decisions on his opponents if they give him even a hint of weakness or vulnerability.

I suspect Ray was trying to play a representation game here. His turn raise isn't massive but its the exact sort of raise a good player would make with a nut or near nut hand on that turn leaving a very easy shove for the river. The fact Ray's opponent called the turn doesn't always mean he'll call the river shove as ray generally should only be shoving strong hands. I think he's tried to represent the nuts from the turn onwards and been unlucky that his opponent had a must call hand on the river. For my money his opponent would have folded his hand on the river if he hadn't improved and may well have folded some two-pair hands as well.

I know from talking to Ray that his Poker EV green line is higher than his red and blue which means from time to time he's going to be thoroughly rumbled in a hand and made to look a little stupid.

Re: [200nl] raylapsley observed hand, is his bluff here +ev?
 

River shove is a spew.

Any Q or two diamonds beats him, and with his image he is getting looked up by people playing the board anyway since he is betting $116 and the chop is already returning $83.

Although, it makes his decision making process easier, since he is out of position and the other player will most likely bet if he is any good putting raylapsley to the test, because hardly anyone would checkraise here this shallow if they had anything better than the board.

Re: [200nl] raylapsley observed hand, is his bluff here +ev?
 

The river shove is fine, the rest of the hand isn't.

Re: [200nl] raylapsley observed hand, is his bluff here +ev?
 

Raylapsley is an excellent player who uses aggression well.

I think he'd probably agree that he's been a little tired with his thinking in this hand though.

In isolation, I like the shove on the river- however it doesn't fit with the story he's tried telling on the turn. Viz, on the turn he's representing a 9 with his raise (a flush draw would most likely have raised on the flop)- yet on the river he's now representing a Q or a made flush.

Also, it's a dangerous play because when his opponent has called his turn raise it could well be that he has the flush draw himself- and so is obviously calling on the river.

As it happens, he was a little unlucky (with his turn play) that he was up against what I would suspect was a poor calling station as most players would fold the turn there OOP with stronger hands than QJ.

Re: [200nl] raylapsley observed hand, is his bluff here +ev?
 

Interesting hand. I agree with Narena, what he's trying to rep just doesn't make sense. He went from repping 9,x to Q,x; however IMO there is still potential fold equity on the river that makes his shove a good play. I don't think too many players would call for a chop there, which folds out two pair, tpgk a good % of the time. The villain obviously could've been on the flush draw as well, but I still like the push.

Re: [200nl] raylapsley observed hand, is his bluff here +ev?
 

Very poorly played hand.

Re: [200nl] raylapsley observed hand, is his bluff here +ev?
 

Although I don't think this hand is played particularly well, I think we all get into these spots from time to time some of us more than others. If he makes up his mind on the river that he's not going to fold based on how much is already in the pot, you're better off betting in that spot than check/calling. If he has the better straight he's going to put you to the decision anyway, and may do it on a bluff if he doesn't.

Once you're that invested you go for it, and if you get called out on the bluff and made to look like an idiot, consider it advertising for future hands. When a good player plays a hand badly, he can often more than make up for it when he really does have a hand in a subsequent pot.