Tough spot with a strong hand
 

Folded to me in the CO and I open with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. My opponent, who I have stats on but no great read (he hasn't been too loud so far so I haven't seen a ton out of him), coldcalls OTB. He's 30/8/1.2 or so. Higher turn and river aggression than flop aggression from what I can see. Small sample so may not be worth a ton.

The flop is Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I bet, he raises, and I 3bet. He calls.

The turn is the 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I bet and he calls quickly. The river is the Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I bet and he raises.

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Tough spot with a strong hand
 

easy crying call vs anyone, especially a player that you don't have that strong of a read on

Re: Tough spot with a strong hand
 

He has a worse Queen often enough to reraise here I think. If you are beat its by a flush and not a boat because people love to play flushes this weird way when they suck. I raise.

-DeathDonkey

Re: Tough spot with a strong hand
 

I think this player is popping the turn almost always when we're behind. His flop raise/call + turn call sais I hit the flop, and can't beat an overpair. His river raise sais, now I can beat an overpair! Huzah! If he's not taking a crazy, tricky line (and this player type usually is not overly tricky) he has trip Qs.

Even if he is taking a tricky line: What if he called the flop 3-bet with a set or 2 pair intending to raise the turn? Did he get scared when the straight/flush card came and decided to call down? If so, would he call the turn with a straight or flush (intending to raise the river) and go ahead and raise anyways when the board pairs? If he does have a significant tricky range here, it is unlikely that both straights/flushes AND boats are in it.

At first I thought 'crap, call', but after thinking it through and doing some stoving I think we're up against a fairly tight range that we have crushed a significant majority of the time, and a wide range that beats us a significant minority of the time => 3bet.

Re: Tough spot with a strong hand
 

Unless you have reason to think is particularly tricky, I think you have to 3bet for value, as KQ and QT are a large part of his range. I think QJ/flush/set all give more combined flop+turn action.

If there were a 3 bet cap, then this would be an easy 3-bet. But I think the times you are facing a cap and losing (e.g. he plays QJ/JJ/88 this way, fearing to raise turn because the flush card came in) are still much less than the times you see KQ or QT. Of course I expect to see AQ a lot here as well, but then it doesn't really matter if you 3bet or call.

Re: Tough spot with a strong hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
He has a worse Queen often enough to reraise here I think. If you are beat its by a flush and not a boat because people love to play flushes this weird way when they suck. I raise.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the truth. I don't understand why they do that (other than "they suck").

Re: Tough spot with a strong hand
 

basic hand reading all point to him having a Q, so 3 bet.

Re: Tough spot with a strong hand
 

I would say 3-bet like 1 month ago. Now I call and lose every time to Q8.

Re: Tough spot with a strong hand
 

this is an exercise in weighted hand ranges

his two most likely hands are KQ and QT (plus AQ which doesnt matter). he'll prob play those hands like this 100%. just about every other hand in his range has us beat, but all those hands have to be discounted bc they tend to give u more action on flop/turn.

the river play here is kind of impossible to solve. my guess is ur about half-way between breakeven-equity and 3bet-equity

Re: Tough spot with a strong hand
 

is this one of those 3bet/fold to cap hands?