How to avoid crushing suck-outs over and over and over....?
 

Greetings...this is my first post, so please excuse any forum infractions...they aren't intentional.

Here's the situation. For the past month or so, I've been playing the PS FPP WSOP Satellites (40FPP no re-buy). Either I'm cursed with bad luck, poor skill, lack of understanding or all three. I need your help.

I get into situations, usually mid-tourney, where I have a good hand, one I judge to be better than that of my opponent. I will bet or raise it accordingly. The response seems to be coming back more and more as an all-in re-raise (which, by the way, usually has me covered).

Now, based upon my read of the situation (which I've been correct about all but 1 time), I believe I have the best hand going in, so I call the all-in. The majority of the time, the opponent has a straight or flush draw. From time to time, he/she will have something else. But, in all instances except one, I have the better hand at that point.

What happens every time is the opponent hits his draw. It is amazing. Two recent examples:

1) I have JJ in middle position, table folds to me and I raise 3X BB. Opponent on my left re-raises all-in (he has me covered by 200 chips). He's been pre-flop raising a lot, so I put him on a less than premium hand. I call and he turns over 99. He catches a 9 on the turn.

2) Mid tourney, I'm BB and have Ad 8d. Table folds to SB who raises 2X BB. I call with position. Flop is As 8s 3c. SB checks, I bet half the pot. SB goes all-in (has me covered by a few thousand). I know he's on a draw, but he's over 4-1 against. I call. He turns over Ks7s. You know the rest...Js comes on the turn and I'm out.

My question is am I just not playing correctly? Should I fold to these all-on bets that I know I'm currently beating but I also know they are drawing to a hand that can beat mine? It doesn't make sense to me since the odds should be in my favor...unless, I'm missing something.

What should be my strategy to avoid getting knocked out like this time and time again? It is really frustrating! I would think I should win more of these than lose them over time, but I'm not winning them at all!

Any of your sage wisdom would be very much appreciated. Thank you for your time and help.

Re: How to avoid crushing suck-outs over and over and over....?
 

so you get your money in good and lose? It happens

Post in beats, brags and variance ... they'll help you

Re: How to avoid crushing suck-outs over and over and over....?
 

You don't want to avoid suck-outs.

You want to be way ahead when the money goes in

Re: How to avoid crushing suck-outs over and over and over....?
 

ban

Re: How to avoid crushing suck-outs over and over and over....?
 

[ QUOTE ]
so you get your money in good and lose? It happens

Post in beats, brags and variance ... they'll help you

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the reply. I guess I was hoping for some sort of strategic thinking that might help in the decision making process. My perception of the other forum is that it is a place to brag about winning and whine about losing.

In the past, I would agree with your comments about getting my money in with the best hand. I just wonder if I'm on a bad streak or there is some other strategy one should employ in tournaments such as these.

Thanks.

Re: How to avoid crushing suck-outs over and over and over....?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You don't want to avoid suck-outs.

You want to be way ahead when the money goes in

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I would figure, but it doesn't seem to be working now. Maybe I just have to stick it out. Thanks for the response.

Re: How to avoid crushing suck-outs over and over and over....?
 

You either get used to them or you don't. If you can't, quit.

Poker players can be a miserable breed. They face the situations you describe every day, and they don't always deal with it successfully.

If you're just starting out, there's an Anthology sticked at the top of the forum with a lot of useful stuff.

Post hands, participate in discussions, etc. And develop a thick skin, seriously.

Re: How to avoid crushing suck-outs over and over and over....?
 

A thought most people tend to forget:

Try not to call yourself off into a coin flip without great pot odds.

I.E. We call with AK because we hope to dominate weaker Aces. We call with AQ for the same reason. If we know an opponent has pocket pairs, don't put your money in without overpairs or two strong live overcards(suited connecting overcards)...50/50 shots with 55/45 pot outs are technically +EV, but since you can never be sure you're a coin flip pre-flop, you need to only *call* when you can be sure you're crushing the range of the raiser either through domination or just flat out giving him a 2-outer for his set.

I hope that rambling made sense; this same ideals is why I frequently push my suited connectors in the blinds, because good tournament players(and most bad ones later in a MTT) will fold ace rags because it's not strong enough, and if I run into AK, I'm not dominated. Domination is the key thing I *always* try to avoid when I'm pushing my small stacks. I'd fold A2 before 34s depending on the table and my image.

Re: How to avoid crushing suck-outs over and over and over....?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so you get your money in good and lose? It happens

Post in beats, brags and variance ... they'll help you

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the reply. I guess I was hoping for some sort of strategic thinking that might help in the decision making process. My perception of the other forum is that it is a place to brag about winning and whine about losing.

In the past, I would agree with your comments about getting my money in with the best hand. I just wonder if I'm on a bad streak or there is some other strategy one should employ in tournaments such as these.

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok,so you got some though replies,and no wonder,for this being your first post,it comes across as somewhat whiney,and,like someone already said,this is a strategy forum.

Anyhoo,I'll try to be nice here and give you an example....

You are in the WSOP ME,and it's bubbletime,one of the money,and you are 2nd in chips overall. You are in the BB,everybody folds around to the SB,who happens to be the chipleader. He goes all-in,you look down at AA. What do you do??

You call ofcourse,SB(prob Jamie Gold) turns over 2-5o,flop comes 2-2-5. Thankyou and goodbye.

You would never fold in this situation ever,you just happened to get unlucky.Money went in good,he drew out on you. Usually things aren't as clear cut obviously,but the moral of the story....as lons as your money goes in ina good spot,you did your job.

Even with this sick beat,you are "only" a little better than 4:1,so you will lose 1 out of 5 times.6:4? Lose 4 out of 10 times. There's no strategy to avoid bad beats.This is the simplest of math,if your money goes in before all the cards are dealt,the numbers take over. And similar to that,just because you lost on AA last time you had'em,doesn't mean you'd win 4 in a row before they are cracked again. If you were to play 50000 hands a month,you'd see that the numbers will pretty much even themselves out. If you are like me,playing mainly live,the number of hands you see are a lot smaller,and the bad runs seem to last a lot longer....on the upside,the good ones go on for a while to....I think

Re: How to avoid crushing suck-outs over and over and over....?
 

When you get your money in, you want to be in a situation where you have to get sucked out on to lose. Mathematically, you have to get unlucky in poker. It sucks. But it happens.