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-   -   $10NL KK bad board (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=551308)

jasonfish11 11-21-2007 09:27 AM

$10NL KK bad board
 
6 handed unknown villian.

I have villian covered.

SB Hero ~$15
MP Villian ~$10

UTG folds
Villian raises to $0.30
CO folds
BTN folds
Hero dealt K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] raises to $1.20
BB folds
Villian calls

Flop ($2.4)
J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero bets $2, Villian raises $6.80 and is all in, Hero??

I see this often happen with AJ no club or KJ or A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]X, set. I dont often see a made flush shove here at this level.

willyc 11-21-2007 09:52 AM

Re: $10NL KK bad board
 
I'd call but it's close. If you're ahead on the flop he's got 12-14 outs, and if you're behind you're drawing nearly dead. You need 30% equity to call and I figure you have a bit more than that.

Board: Jc 7c 3c

Wins Ties Equity
63.61% 1.57% 65.18% ( 33,77,JJ+,AcKc,AcQc,AcTc,KcQc,AcT+,KcJ,QcJ,JTc )
33.25% 1.57% 34.82% ( KdKs )

If you add more random made flushes to his range then it's a lot closer but I think you're still OK.

Board: Jc 7c 3c

Wins Ties Equity
68.43% 1.35% 69.77% ( 33,77,JJ+,AcKc,AcQc,AcTc,KcQc,AcT+,KcJ,QcJ,JTc,KcT c,QcTc,Tc9c,Tc8c,9c8c,8c6c,6c5c )
28.88% 1.35% 30.23% ( KdKs )


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