The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

Villain plays straight poker and runs by the stats of 16/8/1.5 over 200 hands.


Cryptologic
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises</font>, 7 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4.5SB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 re-raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5.25BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>

Any good?

I figure that Villain has announced his hand quite clearly on the flop. He's no one to open-raise A9s from UTG+1, and he prolly wouldn't 3bet AKs on a board like this. Leaves a PP.
I expect to get a fold here very often if villain doesn't happen to have AA.

Any good?

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

Very creative. I'm not sure I like it, and not sure I don't like it. I would do the math to see the break even point, but I'm drinking on a wednesday afternoon and don't feel like it. I agree with your assesment of his probable hand as an overpair, but I'm assuming you can let this go if he treys the turn (AA, dur.) I guess my final analysis would be that I don't like it in a vacuum, but don't mind it against the right opponant in the right spot.

-J

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

Way to play some poker!!!!

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

Given villan's stats and your read, fold pf. Raising the flop is spew. The turn is good if you think he's able to fold TT-KK. I'd like to see a WTSD on the guy, tho.

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

Boz, assuming he raises slightly less than his "full" 8% from EP (let's say 6%), I'm a 2:1 dog, getting 3:1 odds... ?

His wsd is 30% and I agree, flop raise is the one action in the hand I'm very unsure of...

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

this call pf is standard for me.

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Boz, assuming he raises slightly less than his "full" 8% from EP (let's say 6%), I'm a 2:1 dog, getting 3:1 odds... ?

His wsd is 30% and I agree, flop raise is the one action in the hand I'm very unsure of...

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh. Preflop isn't about equity. Making this call preflop is predicated on your being able to avoid spewing postflop, and therefore shouldn't be "standard" or "easy".

Part of my concern about the flop raise is that it mutes the power of your turn bluff considerably, unless your villan is so MUBSy that he'll put you on A9 vs. his AK-one-heart or something.

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

A straight-forward player's flop 3-bet means he has an overpair. The 16/8/1.5 stats indicate that he probably calls more often than he should (looking at the 1.5 AF). I don't like it.

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

Easy fold PF. If there were others it may be a call.

The semi bluff on turn may just about be positive EV, but only because of the heavy price you've already paid.

Re: The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on \"bluff\"...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Boz, assuming he raises slightly less than his "full" 8% from EP (let's say 6%), I'm a 2:1 dog, getting 3:1 odds... ?

[/ QUOTE ]

...out of position, facing reverse implied odds unless you make a straight...