Re: Modern Pascal\'s Wager adaptation: For real.
 

Future events need to be discounted.

Recently started a degree in Biology, I think that’s were all the big movement will be in the next centaury.

Re: Modern Pascal\'s Wager adaptation: For real.
 

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But I will continue to smoke blunts and skateboard daily, for no matter how hard you try to minimize chances of death, it can be over-ridden in a second.

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So basically, you're saying that no matter how much you minimize your chance, there's still some chance you'll die. That doesn't make any sense. The point is to get a larger chance at eternal life.

If you're arguing that once you reach point X you'll still eventually die from an accident, well, that's another issue, but I don't think it has to be that way. I mean, I think there's a significant chance that if you reach point X you won't die from any cause at all.

Re: Modern Pascal\'s Wager adaptation: For real.
 

I don't mean a pre-determined X. Let me figure out an equation for this calculation and I will post what I mean.

Re: Modern Pascal\'s Wager adaptation: For real.
 

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"If science continues to progress exponentially, there will certainly come a time where people no longer have to die of natural causes."

What makes you so certain?

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Exactly... Have you heard of asymptotes?

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I understand this argument, but I think it must ultimately fail to the mechanistic nature of human beings. We are machines. Machine parts can be replaced in the event of wear and failure. I have no doubt that a '69 Camaro can be kept in working order indefinitely, tens of thousands of years, even if none of the parts are original.

Re: Modern Pascal\'s Wager adaptation: For real.
 

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"If science continues to progress exponentially, there will certainly come a time where people no longer have to die of natural causes."

What makes you so certain?

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Exactly... Have you heard of asymptotes?

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I understand this argument, but I think it must ultimately fail to the mechanistic nature of human beings. We are machines. Machine parts can be replaced in the event of wear and failure. I have no doubt that a '69 Camaro can be kept in working order indefinitely, tens of thousands of years, even if none of the parts are original.

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I think Chez's point is that it wouldn't be the same '69 camaro.

I want to criticize your "body is a machine" idea especially with regards to the brain but I think we've been down that road already.

Re: Modern Pascal\'s Wager adaptation: For real.
 

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Now assume that living forever will result in infinite gain.

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I also think this is a bad assumption. Think of it in terms of time preference. In order to realize the infinite gain, you have to wait an infinite amount of time. How can you possibly put a positive value on something that you have to wait an infinite amount of time for?

Re: Modern Pascal\'s Wager adaptation: For real.
 

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The argument falls down because the person I will become in 10000 years time is not me. I gain nothing though I probably would thank the person I used to be.


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Ah! Finally a worthy answer [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

But then I ask you, what's the difference if the time is 10 years? 1 year? 5 minutes? You're not the same person you will be 5 minutes from now, so why bother living anything but an extremely hedonistic life?

Re: Modern Pascal\'s Wager adaptation: For real.
 

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Now assume that living forever will result in infinite gain.

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I also think this is a bad assumption. Think of it in terms of time preference. In order to realize the infinite gain, you have to wait an infinite amount of time. How can you possibly put a positive value on something that you have to wait an infinite amount of time for?

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Okay smart boy, let me rephrase it: Assume living forever will mean an infinite gain. I'm not saying you get the gain after you've lived forever, I'm saying assume life is a gain, and since it's forever, it's an infinite gain. You don't have to "wait forever" to start reaping the rewards.

Re: Modern Pascal\'s Wager adaptation: For real.
 

Heh, well that's the problem with the argument, then.

IF I felt an infinite, immediate gain by being able to live forever, then maybe I should put all my efforts towards the objective in the OP. But I doubt people actually feel that way. Whether I die in 100 years or 400 years, that doesn't make much difference in how I feel today.

Re: Modern Pascal\'s Wager adaptation: For real.
 

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I could continue to live my life as I want to while everyone else is working to keep me alive forever. Freerider ftw.

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Oh right right, you meant the freerider argument. I agree with that. But I think it doesn't apply here.

First, your personal health isn't likely to be something others will do for you. At least not entirely. You have to eat your own food, work out, etc.

As for the progress of science, have in mind that since knowlede produces more knowledge exponentially, a little contribution may eventually become a large boost to scientific progress. If you encourage others to do the same then it could be a larger benefit.

Finally, there's something very important that you're not getting. The freerider argument applied to many situations is fine because you won't make enough of a difference to make your sacrifice worth it, but in this case, even an extremely small difference should be worth it, as your expected gain is likely to be infinite.