50NL: How often should I go broke here?
 

I must look like a huge nit, I've been card dead, there's a bunch of loose players to my left and someone raising pf reasonably to my right, so I can't even steal that often. Villain is on another table I'm at, and so far he's shaping up to be something like 15/10 or 20/15, something like that. Doesn't get out of line. Stacks are about $50.

Villain limps UTG to me on button, I raise A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain calls, pot is ~$6

Flop J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Villain checks, I bet $4, Villain calls.

Pot $10, Turn A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain checks, I bet $10, villain c/r's AI.

I can't decide if there are so many draw/worse two pairs out there that I should be ok calling, or if I should go more with my stat read and decide this is almost always a set.

Re: 50NL: How often should I go broke here?
 

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I must look like a huge nit, I've been card dead, there's a bunch of loose players to my left and someone raising pf reasonably to my right, so I can't even steal that often.

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3bet more? This would help you look like less of a nit, and the guy on your right, particularly if you haven't been 3 betting, is likely to lay down quite often.

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I can't decide if there are so many draw/worse two pairs out there that I should be ok calling, or if I should go more with my stat read and decide this is almost always a set.

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Yeah, I'm not sure I see this guy playing many draws this way. Is he limping a wide range of suited As UTG? He is certainly not limping with any hand that makes two pair here, other than maybe AJ, which doesn't do you much good. So that seems to narrow it down to sets, AJ (which would be weird), spade suited As, and air. Not getting out of line suggests air is somewhat unlikely, and I doubt he's limping a ton of suited As, so yeah, you can probably fold this. Your image is the main thing that would make me consider a call. Rough hand for sure, though.

Re: 50NL: How often should I go broke here?
 

I am going broke here alot of the time.

Re: 50NL: How often should I go broke here?
 

I fold this. What 2p hands do you think Villain has that he limps UTG and then c/r the turn; J6?

He probably limped 66/33 UTG. He might have a A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but I don't think he'd c/r AI a psb lead on the turn. I think he was slowplaying/waiting for a blank on the turn to CRAI with his set. That's my take on the situation and I'd fold.

Edit: This guy is a bad TAG. He has 66/33 here almost always IMO. A tag limp/call UTG? Does he really play Axs like this?

Re: 50NL: How often should I go broke here?
 

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3bet more? This would help you look like less of a nit, and the guy on your right, particularly if you haven't been 3 betting, is likely to lay down quite often.

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This is over something like a hundred, two hundred hands, so I haven't had a ton of real chances to do something like this. I'm not brave enough to 3b with complete air yet.

Re: 50NL: How often should I go broke here?
 

all in

Re: 50NL: How often should I go broke here?
 

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all in

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Re: 50NL: How often should I go broke here?
 

You probably have to fold this, bad nits love limping 33 66 here but not weak aces.

Re: 50NL: How often should I go broke here?
 

I would go broke here and not think anything of it but it does stink of 33/66.